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Economic Research

Economic Research:

I update my estimate of tolerable employment growth, even at risk of being a bit sensationalist

Gerard MacDonell July 3, 2025 10:39 AM

Background: The revisions are the dog that did not bark

Gerard MacDonell July 3, 2025 9:52 AM

An elaboration on the participation rate

Gerard MacDonell July 3, 2025 9:44 AM

Key points from employment report

Gerard MacDonell July 3, 2025 9:40 AM

Even gently rising unemployment with such weak labor force growth looks spooky

Gerard MacDonell July 2, 2025 2:00 PM

The reliability of ADP aside, the speed limit on employment growth appears to have fallen

Gerard MacDonell July 2, 2025 10:21 AM

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