Build Back Better’s public opinion rating is stronger than a triple B credit rating. In fact, the legislation passed by the House of Representatives is a net winner among registered voters (RVs) according to the most detailed, focused survey we’ve found – the National Public Radio/Marist poll released December 9.
The legislation is supported by a plurality of registered voters, seven points more than those opposed. But President Biden and other proponents are most challenged by the 23% of registered voters “unsure” about the bill. Substance matters, but marketing may be Democrats’ larger problem. We find it difficult to imagine BBB enactment unless more registered voters believe they have something at stake, and even that might not be enough.
Expanded childcare tax credit (CCTC) reached 59% of parents with children under 19, as designed, but only 17% of RVs received the benefit, according to respondents of the poll. The trick here will be convincing a vast majority of Americans that aid not intended for them is a public good. A plurality of RVs also believes BBB would help create better jobs, by a slim three points over respondents pessimistic of such an outcome. Even so, only 41% thought the bill would help people like them.
The full Congress won’t be in session for another two weeks, but the Senate is coming back next week. Depending on how Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer handles his pledge to vote next week on the House-passed bill, a slimmed down BBB version acceptable to 50 senators seems difficult to cobble together before mid-January. For all reasons mentioned in this note we remain of the view that enactment of BBB as passed by the House remains unlikely. We and others would have to revisit our outlook but only if more ‘undecided’ voters become supporters of the original or revised Build Back Better proposal.
