President Biden hopes this week begins a turnaround of his approval ratings, which are mired in net negative double digits in many surveys. The administration likely wants to use the coming four days to re-assert control of messaging and action. The week holds promise on a mix of items over which he does not need Congress or that highlight the foundational relationship between the Executive and Legislature.
Fiscal
The Congressional Budget Office this week is expected to finish scoring the House reconciliation bill. Timing slippage is possible, but legislators likely will be focused on two inseparable aspects of the bill: total cost and whether offsets fully cover those costs. Before the Senate begins floor consideration next month Senator Joe Manchin will continue to influence the process. His opposition to EV tax breaks for union-floor US carmakers favors a foreign-based car manufacturer in West Virginia as well as US EV non-union producers and their customers. We continue to see no evidence that Manchin wants to tank pending stimulus, he is just exerting unusual pressure on the final product. We maintain our call that Congress will enact the reconciliation bill by yearend for a total of $2 – 2.5 trillion 4Q21 stimulus.
Bank Regulation
Saule Omarova’s nomination hearing is set for Thursday, November 18. The Senate floor vote will likely mirror a tight committee vote for reasons other than her impeccable qualifications. The president chose a person with credentials rarely seen in any confirmation hearing, whom we believe will be confirmed. But the rub here will be the political optics, not the substance. Biden has not been winning many of those battles, but like pending fiscal legislation, the center-left of his base supports Omarova for the Comptroller of the Currency.
Competition Policy
Chair Lina Khan has quickly revved up the Federal Trade Commission’s emphasis on constraining companies with metaphorical moats around their business(es). On Thursday, the agency is set to determine whether large retailers and their providers will be required to submit data which could shed light on whether supply chain disruptions are being used to increase pricing power. Given attention coming to this subject, including a 60 Minutes feature Sunday night, our sense is the Commission will vote to require submission of the information.
Geopolitics
North American continental heads of state are scheduled for a White House meeting, also on Thursday. This meeting will complete a busy week in which President Biden hopes to demonstrate his and the country’s relevancy. It’s unusual to speak in those terms about the office or the US, underscoring the importance of perceptions. Biden needs a strong week before Thanksgiving to help reset the conversation about his job performance, and to establish momentum going into December’s fiscal policy battles.
The Weekly Blender
Lumping together November international and domestic events as a proxy for the president’s first year may not be fair, but his summer swoon puts a premium on late fall achievements. COP26 was not a bust for President Biden but climate is one of a few issues highlighting the gap between campaign promises and policy accomplishment available to him in an evenly divided Congress. Coal is not the reason the president has a net negative approval rating or trails his predecessor in super early Iowa 2024 polling, but that chunk of carbon nonetheless has been at the center of his highest profile global and national policy pursuits to date.
