Monetary policy and a trove of macroeconomic data join AI policy as top-of-minds policy risk topics this week.
A month from the next FOMC meeting, eleven different Federal Reserve officials speak during nineteen events covering each day of the week. A few of those speakers address AI economic impacts as a congressional subcommittee also consider AI governance and safety issues. Policymakers confront bottom-up pressures informing conversations relevant to approaching midterm elections.
Midterms
Changing voter sentiment significantly seems unlikely in the six weeks before Election Day relative to trends in place in the past five or six quarters. Events in the final weeks usually influence intensity which usually breaks in one direction. Shocks can alter this pattern. Economic conditions are most important to voters, followed by threats to democratic norms and war/military conflicts. AI is a more recent focus, but one producing majorities in favor of the federal government and companies collaborating on safety protocols.
Balance of power sentiment suggest another president and a paucity of voter-resonate legislative activity this year imply electoral trouble for the current majority. Candidate quality and related turnout strategy outweigh spending as determinants of outcomes. A workable 4Q26 outlook acknowledges economic populism disrupted four of the last five national elections (less so 2022) and will this one as well. Both parties are freer to respond to this anti-incumbent trend with 2028 in mind. DC avoids AI governance issues only by increasing political risk. These unrelenting pressures present opportunities for market and marketplace tailwinds over time (see pp 17, 20,and 21 of the poll linked below).
AI
The subcommittee hearing on “Rogue AI” comes as poll respondents increasingly see governance and safety issues as a national policy imperative requiring collaboration among policymakers and relevant companies. Recent hacks of G20 governments, including various US agencies, provide plenty of evidence that cybersecurity systems and protocols are deficient against evolving AI technological challenges. A three-month delay in one company alerting that its agents had breached a government’s IT systems is a cautionary tale warning policymakers against complacency both for national security and electoral risk reasons.
Public opinion
A Reuters/IPSOS poll released last week effectively represents registered voters’ and other respondents’ post-Labor Day sentiment (HERE). VoteHub.com offers links to other polls and related election bet updates.
OUTLOOK (all times Eastern)
Monday
8:15a.m., Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks about recent developments in bank supervision and regulation at a Military Banking Summit.
10:00a.m., ECB President Lagarde meets for the quarterly Monetary Dialogue with European Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee.
1:25p.m., Fed Governor Cook speaks about AI and emerging tech at Oakland Tech Week 2026.
1:30p.m., Richmond Fed Bank’s Barkin chats by the fireside at the Working Class Insights Forum Salamander Middleburg, Virginia.
Tuesday
US import ban set to take effect on certain Canadian alcohol, dairy, and motor vehicle products.
12:30a.m., Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy rate.
11:00a.m., Governor Bowman’s pre-recorded remarks delivered virtually open the Federal Reserve System Community Bank Cyber Workshop.
12:40p.m., Fed Governor Barr discusses the economic outlook at the Detroit Economic Club.
1:00p.m., Chicago Fed Bank’s Goolsbee participates in a moderated Q&A at an Illinois Manufacturers’ Association event.
2:00p.m., New York Fed Bank’s Williams speaks at a University at Buffalo event.
3:00p.m., Fed Governor Waller discusses payment systems at the four-day Sibos 2026 Conference which this year focuses on “Digital Finance for AI-Driven Economies,” Miami (HERE).
Wednesday
Secretary Hegseth’s scheduled “State of the Force” speech at the Pentagon.
1:30p.m., Richmond Bank’s Barkin opens the Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, in partnership with the Federal Reserve System and Rural LISC, Asheville.
2:30p.m., METR’s Chris Painter and other AI analysts testify during a Senate Homeland Security subcommittee hearing “Rogue AI: Securing the Homeland Against AI Attack Agents.”
3:25p.m., Governor Lisa Cook delivers afternoon remarks at the Investing in Rural America conference.
5:10p.m., Goolsbee keynotes an event at the Chicago Fed sponsored by various organizations “Why Consumers and Economists See Different Economies.”
6:00p.m., Minneapolis Fed Bank’s Kashkari engages moderated discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations, New York City.
7:50p.m., BoJ summary of opinions from September meeting.
Thursday
China National Day holidays begin; Hong Kong markets closed for the day, and mainland markets close for a week.
4:00a.m., BoE Governor Bailey opens the London Schol of Economics/Bank of England Future of Money conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart, London.
9:05a.m., At Barkin’s conference in Asheville, Boston Fed Bank’s Collins and Kansas City Fed Bank’s Schmid join their Richmond colleague on a panel about regional trends, workforce dynamics and the economic challenges and opportunities present in rural places.
10:00a.m., Governor Waller speaks about Federal Reserve economic data at FRED Con: Navigating Trust, AI & Storytelling in a World of Data, hosted by the St. Louis Fed Bank (HERE).
1:30p.m., Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks about the US economy and monetary policy at the University of Virginia Darden School of Business.
3:00p.m., The Fed’s Bowman addresses modernizing financial regulation at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council in Washington.
3:30p.m., New York Fed Bank’s Williams moderates a discussion with Governor Lisa Cook, as part of the Bank’s annual five-day Central Banking Seminar (HERE).
6:45p.m., Dallas Fed Bank’s Logan speaks in moderated Q&A at Eleventh District Appreciation Event held at the Bank.
Friday
India’s markets closed in observance of Prime Minister Modi’s birthday.
8:30a.m., US employment reports
10:00a.m., Logan opens the Dallas Fed Bank’s two-day Fifth Annual Workshop on the Macroeconomic Implications of Migration (HERE).
3:35p.m., Bundesbank’s Nagel discusses the German economy, Rostock.
