A week of upcoming high-profile policy events will not overshadow a persistent focus on global policy risks presently filtered through potential implications of US midterm voter decisions in the next six weeks. Presidents Trump and Xi plan to continue discussions begun this weekend by their teams without expectations that differences over geostrategic, AI innovations and policy questions, and global spillovers of the countries’ macroeconomic policies would abate this week. Despite a sparse pre-election schedule, Congress this week holds hearings on the US fiscal mess and Pentagon budget assessments. A handful of transatlantic conferences provide opportunities for present and previous central bankers (including seven Fed speakers), other policy practitioners, and researchers to decipher signals received or preferred.
Midterms. Election Day lands forty-four sunrises from today, but a half dozen states have or very soon will initiate early voting (CO, IL, MN, SD, VT, and VA). The two large, related subjects of lingering economic populism and evolving reactions to unitary party government policies capture all issues active in poll respondents’ and prediction market participants’ interests. VoteHub.com aggregates major national polls and prediction market views allowing for a comprehensive view of updated election sentiments and trends since the start of Trump’s second term. In the past week or so, steadily increasing Senate balance of power uncertainties being the only new development.
OUTLOOK (all times Eastern)
Sunday
US-China bilateral ministerial meetings in preparation of the Presidents’ Summit., New York City.
Climate Week NYC weeklong conference begins.
Monday
Japan’s equity markets closed through Wednesday.
Israel’s financial markets closed for Yom Kippur.
6:30a.m., Chicago Fed Bank’s Goolsbee discusses “Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World in London at an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum event.
3:00p.m., House Budget Committee hearing on the need for a fiscal commission, Dallas.
Tuesday
The UN’s 81st General Assembly general debates begin.
USTR holds a hearing on the investigation relates to allegations of Germany’s unfair pricing policies and practices regarding innovative pharmaceutical products (HERE).
10:05a.m., New York Fed Bank’s Williams opens the 2026 Treasury Market Conference. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks 15 minutes later regarding discount window modernization and Treasury market functioning (HERE).
1:00p.m., Richmond Fed Bank’s Barkin addresses the CFA Society of Baltimore.
3:30p.m., Bundesbank President Nagel keynotes the Society of Professional Economists annual dinner, London.
Wednesday
10:05a.m., Fed Governor Barr speaks on housing at Chicago Fed Bank’s community development summit.
Thursday
Presidents Trump and Xi meet at the White House, followed by a state dinner.
8:00a.m., Richmond Fed Bank’s Barkin participates in a fireside chat at The Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
8:50a.m., Cleveland Fed Bank’s Hammack opens the two-day Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2026 Conference hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank (HERE).
9:30a.m., Senate Armed Services Committee closed briefing on the Pentagon’s budget.
10:10a.m., Philadelphia Fed Bank’s Paulson discusses the economic outlook while opening the two-day Tenth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (HERE).
4:10p.m., New York Fed Bank’s Williams engages moderated discussion during the London Macro Policy Forum.
Friday
4:00a.m., Germany’s IFO current business conditions and expectations surveys.
5:15a.m., BoE Governor Bailey and John Williams participate in a policy panel on the second day of the 6th Monetary Economics Conference organized by the University of Oxford, New York Fed, and Bank of England.
2:00p.m., Cleveland Fed Bank’s Hammack participates in a policy panel discussion at the inflation conference hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the European Central Bank.
