Back AI Macro Nexus Research

Silver’s Message: Treasure Lies in Forgotten Investments

Published on January 25, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I break down why energy and materials are leading year-to-date while tech sits near the bottom and why I expect this “physical upgrade cycle” to define 2026. The S&P finished flat for the week despite early volatility around Greenland headlines, but the real story is beneath the surface: we’re at an inflection point where making money in AI requires a completely different playbook. It is all about the island of forgotten investments.

The core thesis is scarcity versus abundance. Software has become abundant, coding is everywhere, apps are being built at record pace via “vibe coding,” and agentic AI is disrupting the enterprise SaaS model by replacing standardized workflows with customized solutions. Meanwhile, critical minerals (silver, copper, rare earths) face structural shortages that will persist for 15+ years. Jensen Huang at Davos framed this as an $85 trillion infrastructure buildout. Bernstein’s copper shortage forecast extends to 2040. Silver, which most still think of as a precious metal, is actually an AI industrial metal critical for solar, NPUs, switch gear, drones, EVs, FSD, and humanoids. Its price is inelastic to the AI build-out.

I also cover Dario Amodei’s Davos presentation, where he noted AI capabilities are 10x ahead of what enterprises can deploy; adoption, not technology, is the bottleneck. Tesla’s robotaxi is now operating in Austin without a safety monitor, and Lemonade announced a 50% insurance rate cut for FSD. Bitcoin remains in accumulation mode, and I explain why my proxy (copper + QQQ + gold) suggests it’s set up like Micron before its 70-to-400 move.

Timestamps

(00:00–02:20) Markets: S&P flat, led by energy and materials; physical upgrade cycle as 2025 preview
(02:20–05:50) Rates stuck in range; small caps vs large caps; MAG 7 deconcentration thesis
(05:50–09:20) Scarcity vs abundance framework; critical minerals shortage (Greenland, Venezuela, rare earths)
(09:20–14:15) Silver as industrial metal; Jensen Huang’s $85T buildout; Bernstein copper shortage through 2040
(14:15–19:40) Materials/energy valuations; Brazil breakout; why 1970s inflation replay won’t happen
(19:40–27:10) Energy over software trade (XLE vs IGV); vibe coding explosion; Claude disrupting enterprise coding
(27:10–35:10) Agentic AI vs SaaS; Dario Amodei on enterprise deployment bottleneck; Anthropic vs OpenAI
(35:10–42:30) Jensen + Dario synthesis; Tesla robotaxi in Austin; Lemonade 50% FSD insurance cut
(42:30–48:15) Ray Kurzweil on AGI; $64B data center delays; top 12% of AI adopters seeing dramatic gains
(48:15–51:50) Bitcoin accumulation thesis; crypto bill; Bitcoin proxy (copper + QQQ + gold)

Watch here

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

Analyst Certification

The analyst, 22V Research Group, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Analyst Certifications and Independence of Research.

Each of the 22V Research analysts whose names appear on the front page of this report hereby certify that all the views expressed in this Report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views of in this Report.

22V Research (the “Company”) is an independent research provider. The Company is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC and is not a registered broker dealer or investment adviser. 22V Research has no other regulated or unregulated business activities which conflict with its provision of independent research.

22V Research, LLC is a professional services and independent publication organization. 22V Research, LLC is not a securities broker-dealer, not a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), not a registered investment advisor (RIA) and not a member of SIPC.

Securities transactions, when offered, are offered by 22V Securities, LLC through LPS Capital, LLC. Certain employees of 22V Securities, LLC are dually registered as securities representatives of LPS Capital, LLC or Analyst Hub Securities, LLC. 22V Securities, LPS Capital and Analyst Hub Securities are members FINRA, SIPC.

https://brokercheck.finra.org/

Current Ratings Definition.

SECTOR OUTPERFORM: An “outperform” rating anticipates the company will outperform the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

SECTOR PERFORM: A “market perform” rating anticipates the company will perform in line with the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

SECTOR UNDERPERFORM: An “underperform” rating anticipates the company will underperform the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

Limitation Of Research And Information.

This Report has been prepared for distribution to only qualified institutional or professional clients of 22V Research Group. The contents of this Report represent the views, opinions, and analyses of its authors. The information contained herein does not constitute financial, legal, tax or any other advice. All third-party data presented herein were obtained from publicly available sources which are believed to be reliable; however, the Company makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event shall the Company be responsible or liable for the correctness of, or update to, any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this data. Nothing contained in this Report or any distribution by the Company should be construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or investment. Any research or other material received should not be construed as individualized investment advice. Investment decisions should be made as part of an overall portfolio strategy and you should consult with a professional financial advisor, legal and tax advisor prior to making any investment decision. 22V Research Group shall not be liable for any direct or indirect, incidental or consequential loss or damage (including loss of profits, revenue or goodwill) arising from any investment decisions based on information or research obtained from 22V Research Group.

Reproduction And Distribution Strictly Prohibited.

No user of this Report may reproduce, modify, copy, distribute, sell, resell, transmit, transfer, license, assign or publish the Report itself or any information contained therein. Notwithstanding the foregoing, clients with access to working models are permitted to alter or modify the information contained therein, provided that it is solely for such client’s own use. This Report is not intended to be available or distributed for any purpose that would be deemed unlawful or otherwise prohibited by any local, state, national or international laws or regulations or would otherwise subject the Company to registration or regulation of any kind within such jurisdiction.

Copyrights, Trademarks, Intellectual Property.

22V Research Group, and any logos or marks included in this Report are proprietary materials. The use of such terms and logos and marks without the express written consent of 22V Research Group is strictly prohibited. The copyright in the pages or in the screens of the Report, and in the information and material therein, is proprietary material owned by 22V Research Group unless otherwise indicated. The unauthorized use of any material on this Report may violate numerous statutes, regulations and laws, including, but not limited to, copyright, trademark, trade secret or patent laws.