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22V Surveys: 10yr & Labor Data

Published on October 1, 2026

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Dennis DeBusschere

Kevin Brocks

Sophia Wang

Quick summary, investors…

Think the 10yr will end the year at either 5% or 5.5%, with a small tail towards 5%
Think the level of the 10yr that would cause a correction is 6%
Think the market reaction to Friday’s data will be mixed/negligible or risk-on
- 53% mixed/negligible
- 41% risk-on
- Only 6% risk-off
Expect…
- Payrolls at 90k (BBG consensus 90k)
  - Right tail towards 130k
- AHE in-line at 0.3%
- Urate higher at 4.2%, BBG consensus 4.1%
Believe…
- 80-120k Payrolls and/or 4.1% urate is risk-on
- >120k Payrolls and/or 4% urate is risk-off

10yr: The distribution of investors expectations for the 10yr into yearend are bimodal. 56% of the investors we polled think the 10yr is biased lower, 44% think higher. Within the two distributions, consensus estimates are 5% and 5.5%, respectively. Very few investors expect the 10yr to stay around the current level.

Most investors think the 10yr will be a problem for equities at 6%. There is a smaller group who expect yields ~5.5% to be a headwind. In total, 65% of the investors we polled are clustered around 6%, 32% are clustered around 5.5%.

PAYROLLS: 53% of investors believe that Friday’s data will be mixed/negligible. 41% believe risk-on and only 6% risk-off. That is the lowest share of risk-off since December 2025, and the second lowest in the history of our surveys (2021-fwd).

Investors think above ~120k on Payrolls would be risk-off. ~100-120k risk-on, and below that mixed/negligible.

Investors think a 4.1% urate would risk-on and 4% risk-off.

Investors think that a Urate of 3.9% implies inflationary pressure. There has been a gradual shift to a lower urate implying inflationary pressures.

Labor market data is being watched more than normal.

Source: 22V Research

Investors’ focus is on Payrolls and the urate.

DATA ESTIMATES: Our survey consensus for Payrolls is 90k, inline with Bloomberg’s sell-side screen. There is a tail that centers around 130k though.

Survey consensus for AHE is in-line at 0.3% with a tail to lower.

Survey consensus for the urate is 4.1%, inline with Bloomberg’s sell-side polling.

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