In this week’s video, I push back on the bond-market panic dominating X. The 30-year sits at 5.23% and could print its highest level since 2004, but a yield chart does not confirm a crisis, it distracts investors: bond volatility is subdued, junk spreads are the tightest ever, inflation swaps from one to ten years are all pinned near 2.5% (right where core CPI sits), and Truflation is falling fast. This is a global, debt-driven repricing that has run since 2022, and governments from Washington to Tokyo have made clear they will fight it. The economic and equity facts, meanwhile, are hard to argue with: Nominal GDP is 6%. The S&P PEG ratio is at its lowest in decades, revisions are surging globally, profit margins are expanding, and Nvidia is approaching new all-time highs while semiconductor bears call it a bubble unwind.
The biggest investment story for the next year is the merge of AI and crypto. The newest best model in the world can now do essentially every knowledge-worker job, agents are operating in teams of 1,200, and the mental model has shifted from AI assistant to AI organization. Interest rates are a rounding error on inference P&L: a 200 basis point rise in 10-year yields costs roughly one point of margin, while a 10% model price decline costs three. The three companies that matter are Anthropic, OpenAI, and Nvidia, and model price compression, not rates, is the risk to watch.
As Marc Andreessen argued, AI is crypto’s killer app. Agents need native payments, stablecoins, and tokenization, and they, not humans, will become crypto’s biggest users. Robinhood’s tokenized stock volumes, an 18x expansion in real-world assets, and perpetual futures on private names show the roadmap accelerating now. With crypto sharply outperforming AI equities quarter to date and positioning still light, I lay out how I size the bet: if you believe there is a 5% chance agents drive this ecosystem, hold 5%.
Timestamps
- (00:00–03:26) Empowerment through AI: Heading into the final four months of the year, we have hit the most important point in the disruption as agents grow rapidly. The old path (good school, job, annual raise, save, retire) no longer works. The new model is learning anywhere with agents, building businesses, and investing through crypto and tokenization.
- (03:26–07:42) Stop with the bond fears: 30-year yields at 5.23% could make highs since 2004, but bond vol is quiet, junk spreads are the tightest ever, inflation swaps and core CPI all sit near 2.5%, and Truflation is falling. Long Treasuries are down just 3% YTD versus 32% in 2022. Robin Brooks: this is a global, debt-driven selloff that governments will not let spin out of control, and Bessent says Japan is coordinating to support the yen.
- (07:42–11:07) The equity facts: S&P PEG ratio at its lowest in decades, revisions surging, manufacturing PMI at 55. S&P +18%, Nasdaq +24%, Russell +23%, SMH +88% year over year; MSCI World +16%, EM +30%, global banks +29%. Revenues, EPS, and profit margins rising globally with none of the flattening that precedes recessions.
- (11:07–15:33) Oil, the consumer, and the correction: Oil at $86 is normal for a strong economy and Johnson Redbook is running 9.6%. The S&P’s first correction of the year (three-month rate of change hit zero) is bouncing, the advance-decline RSI matched March lows, and Nvidia is approaching all-time highs while SMH consolidates below its 50-day. Every chip stock follows Nvidia, the head of the circular finance chain. S&P, Q’s, and Russell all sit well above their 200-day; momentum weakness is deleveraging, not earnings.
- (15:33–18:33) Thematic portfolio stuck in the mud: Expect a return to highs after the midterms; Micron buys were made here while weightings tilt toward crypto. ATR% across the 100-name book is falling weekly, meaning hedge funds are no longer being stopped out, a strong sign the bottom is in. Nvidia is now as large as Marvell in the book on relative strength.
- (18:33–20:41) Rates are a rounding error on inference P&L: The three companies that matter are Anthropic, OpenAI, and Nvidia. A 10% model price decline costs three margin points; a 200bp rise in 10-year yields costs one. The risk is model price compression, and it is not happening. Nvidia blew out its quarter, Dell surged 9% with AI server revenue now seen tripling, and Germany is running short of compute.
- (20:41–26:29) Welcome to the AGI era: Astra is the best model on the benchmarks and can do essentially every knowledge-worker job, up from roughly 40% a year ago. Agents are working in teams of 1,200 and sacrificing individual goals for the collective, shifting the mental model from AI assistant to AI organization. For business leaders the job is now workflow redesign; simply handing employees tools means falling behind. Bill Gates has shifted his view, and the next year will equal four years of AI progress.
- (26:29–30:21) From chatbots to agents to financial agents: Crypto plus tokenization lets you compound rather than save. Gavin Baker describes agent-driven shopping as a new consumption shock; Grok now enables crypto buying and lending via MoonPay, and Stripe Link lets agents purchase anywhere. For subscribers: new agents (Pattern Scout, Universe Clerk) running a daily post-close chart pattern screen of the AI Macro Nexus 100.
- (30:21–34:28) AI is the crypto killer app: Marc Andreessen’s point that crypto was never built for humans. Agents need stablecoins, tokenization, and the native payments the early internet never solved. Bitcoin equals the agent-economy ecosystem the way the S&P equals the US economy, and is the purest AI hedge as AI shrinks businesses to five or ten people. Agents, not humans, will be crypto’s biggest users; the Clarity Act is the seal of approval for pension and insurance capital.
- (34:28–40:41) Crypto charts and tokenization: Bitcoin is consolidating after a big rise with 200-days turning up in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Ideologues have bailed (the silent IPO) while most investors missed the move waiting for the 60s and an October bottom. Quarter to date: ETH +56%, SOL +38%, BTC +36% versus S&P +3%, Nasdaq -3%, SMH -14%. Robinhood’s layer 2 has done $1.5B in tokenized stock trades in six weeks, RWAs are up 18x, South Korea launches in February 2027, and perpetual futures on SpaceX and Anthropic point to 24/7/365 markets.
- (40:41–46:21) Takeaways and sizing: The AI trade has had its run (Micron may double, not 10x) while policy wants rates in check and the tape breaks out. Two presses run at once: abundant intelligence compressing multiples and government debasement. Above 82, Bitcoin invites a chase; the Fed meeting is now critical. Handicap it the way my father taught me: look for value, not the winner. If you believe there is a 5% chance agents drive crypto, hold 5%. If the lows break, step aside until price reclaims the 200-day.
