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22V Surveys: Investors Expect a Payrolls Beat and Risk-On Reaction

Published on July 1, 2026

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By

Dennis DeBusschere

Kevin Brocks

Sophia Wang

Quick summary, investors…

  • Are watching tomorrow’s Payrolls release with the same intensity as normal
  • Think the market reaction will be risk-on
    • 52% risk-on
    • 17% mixed/negligible
    • 31% risk-off
  • Expect…
    • Payrolls at 133k (BBG consensus 115k, 113k at time of survey)
    • AHE in-line at 0.3%
    • Urate lower at 4.2%, BBG consensus 4.3%
  • Are split on whether stronger data is risk-on or risk-off

PAYROLLS: 52% of investors believe that tomorrow’s data will be risk-on. 31% believe risk-off and 17% believe mixed/negligible. 40% of investors believe OTHER people think the data will be mixed/ negligible. Risk-on is the surprisingly popular answer since its prediction exceeds its popularity, and it therefore may carry more informational weight.

Risk-on gained traction this month (52% versus 25% last month).

The ranges for risk-on and risk-off payrolls estimates are much wider than last month, underscoring how uncertain investors are about the market’s reaction function. Investors are split on whether stronger or weaker prints should be treated as risk-on or risk-off.

The same trend holds true for the unemployment rate.

Labor market data is being watched the same as normal for the sixth month in a row with a tail towards more than normal.

A screen shot of a graph

AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Source: 22V Research

Investors’ focus remains on Payrolls, but AHE is increasing in importance.

DATA ESTIMATES: Our survey consensus for Payrolls is 133k, above Bloomberg’s 115k (113k at time of survey). 60% expect above sell-side consensus.

Survey consensus for AHE is in-line at 0.3%.

Survey consensus for the urate is 4.2%, lower than Bloomberg’s 4.3%. However, there is a tail to a higher number.

Investors think that a Urate of 4.0% implies inflationary pressure. This is higher than last month’s 3.9%. There is more of an even skew between higher and lower Urate versus previous months.

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