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Signal Over Noise: “The most important moment in human history”

Published on June 21, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I go through the importance of separating signal from noise during the rise of AI. The bubble talk never stops, the Economist is flagging “mania,” analysts are calling for double-digit inflation and hikes under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh after a “hawkish” press conference but the data says ignore the noise and follow AI. The S&P 500 PEG ratio is near the lowest in 22 years, small-cap PEG (S&P 600) has collapsed to multi-decade lows, and the index sits just 8.66% above its 200-day moving average. That isn’t bubble territory; that’s a bull market doing what it’s supposed to do, six weeks up, four weeks of consolidation, constant flush-outs that cleanse the system.

Beneath the surface, the real trade keeps compounding: the benchmark arbitrage. Everyone is overweight the hyperscalers by market-cap default, and this was one of their worst months versus the S&P in a decade (~8–9% underperformance). My thematic portfolio is still unchanged relative to the hyperscalers since ChatGPT launched meaning it is still early innings. Long semis, short software (Micron above $1,000; Adobe and Salesforce bleeding). Your capex is my opportunity.

The new wrinkle matters most: recursive self-improvement is starting to work. Models are leaping (Opus 4.7/4.8, Mythos, the Fable 5 shutdown) largely through algorithmic efficiency not the capex that hasn’t even deployed yet, with Blackwell and Vera Rubin barely online. If intelligence is outrunning infrastructure, the market may question the capex curve, and hyperscalers could be forced to cut. Add open-source pressure, GLM 5.2 matching frontier at a fraction of the cost, and Q2 earnings could be a bigger risk than Q1.

Timestamps

(00:00–02:42) Signal vs. noise: the framing for the whole video. Ignore the bubble/tariff/oil-doomer/AI-bubble noise, it’s cost real money. Staying passive or in software-heavy “AI” ETFs has bled 40–50% of available alpha this year. Build your own AI brain; the agency side is non-negotiable.
(02:42–05:48) Not a bubble: a healthy consolidation (six weeks up, four sideways). The Economist’s “mania” cover is a contrarian tell. S&P 500 PEG at a 22-year low, S&P 600 small-cap PEG collapsed, index only 8.66% above the 200-day MA.
(05:48–08:12) Rotation + the benchmark arbitrage: IWM at new all-time highs, PEG falling because earnings outrun price. S&P down ~1% on the month = consolidation with rotation. Hyperscalers’ worst month vs. the S&P in a decade; thematic portfolio still flat relative to them since ChatGPT.
(08:12–12:26) Warsh “hawkish” narrative is noise: 2-year and 10-year rates remain range-bound, with movement driven almost entirely by the Fed. Oil’s physical-vs-paper story (Jeff Curry) has resolved dated Brent and futures back in line; gas at the pump below $4.
(12:26–15:41) Inflation is rolling over: urea/fertilizer spot prices collapsed (refuting the double-digit inflation call), the largest one-year inflation-swap drop since 2022, Cleveland Fed nowcasting ~0% June CPI. Warsh’s task force on inflation/productivity/jobs is really about AI as a deflationary force.
(16:05–20:31) Consumer and credit hold: Johnson Redbook +9% YoY (highest in 30 years ex-stimulus), earnings revisions rising, credit spreads back to all-time tights. Dan Ivascyn (PIMCO) stays constructive, air pockets, not a default wave. The era of income without losses is ending; the zombies are going away.
(20:31–23:38) Long semis / short software: out of Micron in the 600s, now above $1,000; Adobe and Salesforce puking. Thematic portfolio (~$20T) vs. hyperscalers (~$14–22T); Morgan Stanley now runs the index. Your capex is my opportunity.
(23:38–28:23) The depreciation time bomb: hyperscaler issuance growing fast to fund a massive, uncertain bet. Gemini has fallen badly behind; Microsoft and Meta charts look gruesome. Meta’s AI unit is in open disarray after the $15B Alexander Wang hire.
(29:36–38:27) Fable 5 shutdown as a turning point: echoes of Aschenbrenner’s “Situational Awareness”, AI treated as a national-security asset, sovereign-AI pressure, single-provider risk. RSI means models improve themselves; the capex air pocket risk is that infrastructure spending gets questioned and cut.
(38:27–49:39) Open source goes frontier: GLM 5.2 beating GPT-5.5 on long-horizon coding at ~1/6 the cost; Nadella’s ecosystem argument and Microsoft weighing DeepSeek for Copilot. Token index still flat. Q2 hyperscaler risk elevated. Bitcoin remains below its 200-day, no momentum, no add until it breaks above.

Watch here

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