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“We Will Crash”: Why Does AI Bring Out the Fear In People

Published on May 31, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I over how the market continues to move higher with the second strong month in a row. The last two weeks are masking a deeper story. In the last month, only three of eleven sectors were positive, breadth is breaking down, and the AI trade is hitting real supply-side stress. Fujikura’s earnings collapse, Modine’s bottleneck commentary, and the semi test-equipment industry calling this its “worst-ever supply crunch” signal that bottlenecks are no longer theoretical, they’re showing up in price action. With semis, hardware, and power accounting for 97% of long-short fund returns YTD per Morgan Stanley, any disruption to the build-out reprices the entire market.

I also dismantle the “bubble” framing. Andrew Ross Sorkin spent eight years researching 1929 and went on 60 Minutes guaranteeing a crash without a date, depth, or mechanism. Korea’s retail frenzy and record margin balances are real warning signs, but bubbles build tops, they don’t snap on Monday. Walking through 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008, a simple 20-day/50-day moving average cross or a 200-day break protected you from the vast majority of the drawdown every time. Labels are lazy. Price action is honest.

The constructive case is intact. Jensen’s $90 trillion build-out over the next decade-plus equals 85% of today’s global economy. Dell raised FY27 EPS guidance from $12 to $18 and revenue to $165–195B, the chart is justified by the numbers. Anthropic raised $65B at $965B. Cisco’s G2 Patel revised agentic WAN traffic from 2.5x to 9x over the next decade, a four-times repricing of the entire infrastructure stack. The most overlooked piece of the trade is Eli Lilly: 1,000+ Blackwell GPUs, the Lilly Pod supercomputer, the Verve gene-editing acquisition, revenue up 55% YoY, PEG below one. Torsten Slok nails it, the new 60/40 is AI versus non-AI, and benchmark weights remain 80–90% wrong.

Timestamps

(00:00–02:00) Markets: S&P’s second strong month, nine weeks up, but only three of eleven sectors positive. Breadth is deteriorating — the tape is carried by AI and industrials alone.
(02:00–05:30) Regime shift signals: Morgan Stanley Tech Momentum Index showing fatigue. “Crappy beta” tech now outperforming AI names with the best fundamentals — a classic warning that the trade has changed character.
(05:30–06:30) Bandwidth Wars / supply chain fragility: Fujikura broke down sharply on earnings, Modine flagged supply constraints, semi test equipment industry says “worst-ever supply crunch.” Bottlenecks are showing up in real numbers.
(06:30–08:00) Korea bubble warning signs: retail mania, record margin balances, lunch-table stock talk. Risk/reward has shifted even if it isn’t technically a bubble.
(08:00–12:00) Dell case study: stock from $120 to $420, called a bubble purely on the chart. But Dell raised FY27 EPS guidance from $12 to $18, revenue to $165–195B, beat by $8B, up 88% YoY. Numbers justify the move.
(12:00–15:00) The $90 trillion build-out: Jensen’s framing — 85% of global economy over 10–15 years across energy, chips, and infrastructure. Andrew Ross Sorkin’s eight-year crash research critique.
(15:00–23:00) Bubble psychology and technicals: walking through 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2008 — moving average crosses and 200-day breaks protect you in every case. Why bubble-calling is socially asymmetric and ego-protective.
(34:00–38:00) Podcast lineup: Raoul Pal & Julian Brigden (capital/labor → compute/energy), Salim Ismail & Peter Diamandis (company adaptation), Dan Shipper on Lenny’s (agents don’t kill SaaS — they become the new operating surface).
(42:00–51:00) AI-pharma deep dive: Eli Lilly’s 1,000+ Blackwells, the Lilly Pod supercomputer, the Verve Therapeutics gene-editing acquisition pointing toward a one-time cholesterol cure, the $1B Nvidia drug-discovery lab. Revenue up 55% YoY, PEG below one, stock has doubled the Mag 7 since 2017.
(51:00–57:00) Inflation and power risks: Exxon and Chevron CEOs warning oil to $160, Strait of Hormuz overhang, ERCOT 135 GW peak load with 4% reserves, Goldman says only 50–60% of scheduled data center capacity comes online.
(57:00–60:00) Crypto and the new 60/40: Bitcoin still in a bear market, wait for the 200-day cross. Tokenization at the NYSE next week. The new 60/40 is AI vs. non-AI — and most portfolios remain weighted 80–90% the wrong way.

Watch here

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