Back Washington Policy

Iran Vexations, US Jobs/G20 PMI/GDP Data, Transatlantic/Asian Central Bankers’ Views, Trump Cabinet Testimonies

Published on May 31, 2026

Kim Wallace

Macro risk sentiment inputs this week come from four non-US central bank chiefs as well as a handful of Federal Reserve officials before the next official communications blackout. Geopolitical noise seems increasingly detached from actionable risk analysis, however, Iran war discussions come to Washington where President Trump’s team moderate talks set for representatives of Israel and Lebanon. Economic and national security hearings proliferate as secretaries Bessent, Blanche, and Rubio highlight Administrations witnesses due for Capitol Hill member engagements. Notably, US congressional annual defense policy processes begin this month, House authorizers this week and appropriators next week.

Senate GOP midterm election gyrations last month added to longer-standing ideological or philosophical differences with Trump have grown the list of Republican free agents to six (Cassidy, Collins, Cornyn, Murkowski, Paul, and Tillis), complicating vote counts on any issue the remainder of this year. In the four weeks before the Independence Day break, Congress will explore opportunities to reset DHS reconciliation negotiations and attempt to finish work on the stablecoin CLARITY Act bill pending in the Senate. We’ll update developments and outlooks for summer action on these matters later this week as credible information presents.

Policy AImpulse. Michael Horowitz, a former Pentagon technology warfare official dissects misplaced expectations of the battle space impact of artificial intelligence. He believes humans will be crucial going forward regardless of applicable technological advancements – in some cases, precisely because of the pace at which technology has been or will be deployed. A major risk comes from ai warfare usage posed by weak second-strike militaries whose deterrence deficiencies increase odds of worst behaviors (DPRK).

OUTLOOK (all times Eastern)

Sunday

8:00p.m. Bank of Korea two-day International Policy Conference 2026 hosted by Governor Shin Hyun Song in Seoul.

8:30p.m., Fed Governor Powell acceptance remarks at the John F, Kennedy Profile in Courage award.

Monday

2026 Atlantic Hurricane season begins.

Tuesday

Israel and Lebanon are scheduled to resume mediated discussions in Washington, DC.

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper visits China for talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi before heading to Shenzhen to meet with business leaders.

1:50a.m., Minneapolis Fed Bank’s Kashkari addresses the BoK conference.

8:30a.m., Cleveland Fed Bank’s Hammack engages moderated Q&A with members of the City Club of Cleveland.

10:00a.m., Secretary Rubio discusses the State Department FY27 budget with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

10:00a.m., BoE Governor Bailey addresses UK Parliament’s House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

2:00p.m., Secretary Rubio grabs lunch then meets with Senate Appropriations subcommittee members about FY27 issues (and likely current global affairs).

4:00p.m., DoJ Deputy Secretary Blanche meets with House appropriations subcommittee members.

Wednesday

The three-day St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins.

4:30a.m., BoJ Governor Ueda keynotes the Tokyo Kisaragi Association’s June meeting.

10:00a.m., Secretary Bessent discusses the Treasury Department’s FY27 budget request with the Senate Finance Committee.

10:00a.m., Secretary Rubio meets in open session with the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

2:00p.m., The Fed’s Beige Book.

4:00p.m., Dallas Fed Bank’s Logan participates in moderated conversation at the University of Texas at El Paso.

8:30p.m., The NBA Finals begin, featuring the New York Knicks versus the San Antonio Spurs.

Thursday

1:00a.m., RBA Governor Bullock appears before the Australia Senate Economics Legislation Committee.

4:00a.m., ECB President Lagarde speaks in Aix-en-Provence, France.

8:30a.m., Richmond Fed Bank’s Barkin speaks in Ashburn, Virginia.

10:00a.m., Secretary Bessent returns to the Hill for a meeting with House Ways and Means Committee members.

10:30a.m., a House Homeland Security subcommittee considers cybersecurity infrastructure implications of AI.

Friday

8:30a.m., US payroll reports.

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

Analyst Certification

The analyst, 22V Research Group, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Analyst Certifications and Independence of Research.

Each of the 22V Research analysts whose names appear on the front page of this report hereby certify that all the views expressed in this Report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views of in this Report.

22V Research (the “Company”) is an independent research provider. The Company is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC and is not a registered broker dealer or investment adviser. 22V Research has no other regulated or unregulated business activities which conflict with its provision of independent research.

22V Research, LLC is a professional services and independent publication organization. 22V Research, LLC is not a securities broker-dealer, not a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), not a registered investment advisor (RIA) and not a member of SIPC.

Securities transactions, when offered, are offered by 22V Securities, LLC through LPS Capital, LLC. Certain employees of 22V Securities, LLC are dually registered as securities representatives of LPS Capital, LLC or Analyst Hub Securities, LLC. 22V Securities, LPS Capital and Analyst Hub Securities are members FINRA, SIPC.

https://brokercheck.finra.org/

Current Ratings Definition.

SECTOR OUTPERFORM: An “outperform” rating anticipates the company will outperform the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

SECTOR PERFORM: A “market perform” rating anticipates the company will perform in line with the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

SECTOR UNDERPERFORM: An “underperform” rating anticipates the company will underperform the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

Limitation Of Research And Information.

This Report has been prepared for distribution to only qualified institutional or professional clients of 22V Research Group. The contents of this Report represent the views, opinions, and analyses of its authors. The information contained herein does not constitute financial, legal, tax or any other advice. All third-party data presented herein were obtained from publicly available sources which are believed to be reliable; however, the Company makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event shall the Company be responsible or liable for the correctness of, or update to, any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this data. Nothing contained in this Report or any distribution by the Company should be construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or investment. Any research or other material received should not be construed as individualized investment advice. Investment decisions should be made as part of an overall portfolio strategy and you should consult with a professional financial advisor, legal and tax advisor prior to making any investment decision. 22V Research Group shall not be liable for any direct or indirect, incidental or consequential loss or damage (including loss of profits, revenue or goodwill) arising from any investment decisions based on information or research obtained from 22V Research Group.

Reproduction And Distribution Strictly Prohibited.

No user of this Report may reproduce, modify, copy, distribute, sell, resell, transmit, transfer, license, assign or publish the Report itself or any information contained therein. Notwithstanding the foregoing, clients with access to working models are permitted to alter or modify the information contained therein, provided that it is solely for such client’s own use. This Report is not intended to be available or distributed for any purpose that would be deemed unlawful or otherwise prohibited by any local, state, national or international laws or regulations or would otherwise subject the Company to registration or regulation of any kind within such jurisdiction.

Copyrights, Trademarks, Intellectual Property.

22V Research Group, and any logos or marks included in this Report are proprietary materials. The use of such terms and logos and marks without the express written consent of 22V Research Group is strictly prohibited. The copyright in the pages or in the screens of the Report, and in the information and material therein, is proprietary material owned by 22V Research Group unless otherwise indicated. The unauthorized use of any material on this Report may violate numerous statutes, regulations and laws, including, but not limited to, copyright, trademark, trade secret or patent laws.