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TACO PTSD Is Delaying Market Repricing Despite Rising Macro Headwinds

Published on March 22, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I walk through why this is not last year’s market and why the PTSD from the tariff scare is causing analysts and strategists to dangerously underprice what’s happening now. The S&P 500 has fallen roughly 2% for three consecutive weeks, is now below its 200-day moving average, and the 126-day rate of change has broken through zero, a signal that has preceded every recession this century. Yet nobody is calling for one.

Financials are the worst-performing sector year-to-date, down 11% and 15% off the highs, a breakdown I flagged six weeks ago. Credit is deteriorating: Blackstone posted its first loss in one of its private credit funds since 2022, with 37% of the portfolio in software and professional services, precisely the sectors most vulnerable to AI disruption. Private credit stress is accelerating, and life insurers hold more of it than ever. Meanwhile, oil prices are surging across every benchmark (WTI approaching $98, Dubai/Oman futures already exceeding 2022 levels), driven by the Ras Laffan attack that knocked offline a critical helium source for semiconductor manufacturing in Korea and Taiwan, and the Strait of Hormuz disruptions the IEA says could take six months to restore. Diesel is up from $3.50 to $5.20, gas futures imply $4.25, and fertilizer disruptions are hitting at planting season. Inflation expectations are spiking, Fed rate cuts are gone, and tightening is now being priced in globally.

On the AI side, the regime has shifted from the IQ-building stage to the scarcity stage, we have insane demand but not enough compute. Dylan Patel argues semiconductors, not power, are the true bottleneck, with TSMC and ASML’s EUV machines as gatekeepers. Jensen Huang’s GTC presentation emphasized tokenomics and the exponential demand for tokens. The agentic layer, orchestration, memory, multi-agent systems, is ahead of where most capital is positioned. OpenClaw is now the most important software since Linux, Palantir solves the enterprise adoption gap, and Karpathy’s research shows 34 million jobs are in the near-term disruption zone. All long-duration assets in businesses that can’t compete in AI remain under pressure, while the commodity boom and AI infrastructure buildout create the key alpha opportunities for the rest of 2026.

Timestamps

(00:00–03:30) Market overview: S&P down ~2% for three straight weeks, below 200-day MA; 126-day rate of change breaks zero, historical recession precursor. Zero net job creation outside healthcare. Financials worst-performing sector, down 11% YTD.
(03:30–05:30) Year-to-date comparison: Unlike last year’s tariff-driven dip where financials were mid-pack, this time financials led the breakdown before oil spiked and inflation expectations rose. This is not 2025.
(05:53–06:48) AI regime shift: No longer the IQ-building stage, this is the scarcity stage. Demand for AI is insane, supply (compute) is insufficient. All long-duration assets in non-AI-competitive businesses are under attack.
(06:48–09:18) Recession signals and PTSD: The 126-day and year-over-year S&P signals, rising 2-year rates globally, inflation expectations spiking. Analysts and strategists have PTSD from being wrong on tariffs last year and refuse to turn bearish.
(09:35–11:30) Inflation deep dive: Swap market expectations at prior highs, Cleveland Fed forecasting 62 headline CPI for March, quarterly annualized rates above 3%. Year-over-year CPI will go higher, this time it’s a certainty, not tariff speculation.
(11:29–13:22) No capitulation yet: Down volume/up volume ratios show zero panic. Sellside revisions haven’t moved despite the S&P’s 6-month rate of change going negative, historically, revisions always follow.
(13:22–15:07) Oil and commodity shock: WTI $98, Brent higher, Dubai/Oman through 2022 levels. Diesel $5.20. Fertilizer disruptions at planting season. Oil is in everything, inflation surprises to the upside are coming.
(15:07–16:42) AI tools replacing Bloomberg: Built a live commodity dashboard in Perplexity Computer in minutes. $2,400/year vs. $30,000 for Bloomberg. The software disruption is real and accelerating.
(17:04–19:04) Ras Laffan attack: Drone strikes knocked offline a critical helium source for semiconductor fabs in Korea and Taiwan, potentially offline for 6 weeks to months. One attack put the entire tech supply chain on life support. Helium reserves already running down globally.
(19:04–21:16) Strait of Hormuz and market implications: IEA says 6 months to restore flows. Damage to energy facilities means even reopening won’t quickly fix it. Sustainable stock bottom unlikely until headline CPI year-over-year peaks, likely the April data released in May.
(21:47–23:07) Fed paralysis and Kevin Warsh: Cleveland Fed CPI forecast, quarterly annualized rates well above 3%. Fed uncertainty never greater. Warsh expected to take office mid-May, right as inflation peaks.
(23:07–25:00) Volatility and positioning: VIX elevated but realized vol low, hedge funds added shorts to neutralize longs, didn’t delever. Corporate buyback blackout through end of April removes a key support.
(25:00–27:03) Analyst PTSD in detail: Not a single sellside strategist has lowered December S&P targets. UBS still calling for 7,700. Last year at this point, everyone slashed estimates. The difference is PTSD from being wrong on tariffs and it’s helping to keep the market from capitulating.
(29:46–34:14) Private credit crisis: Blackstone private credit fund post first loss since 2022, 37% of portfolio in software/services, ground zero for AI disruption. Stone Ridge paying 11 cents on the dollar. JP Morgan halted Qualric debt. Morgan Stanley forecasting 8% default rates. Life insurers exposed. Liquidity facility likely needed.
(34:34–37:02) Compute as the true bottleneck: Dylan Patel argues power is less the constraint, semiconductors are. TSMC and ASML EUV machines are the gatekeepers. Memory crisis worsening. Remain long memory names but expect beta underperformance during S&P drawdowns.
(37:21–42:10) Agentic AI explosion: Jensen Huang’s 3-hour GTC, tokenomics framework, insane GPU demand. Karpathy’s “December flip” step function capability jump. OpenClaw at 4.5 trillion tokens vs. Claude at 586 billion. Markets still focused on models and GPUs while the agentic layer (orchestration, memory, autonomy) is where the real shift is happening.
(42:45–46:11) Enterprise adoption gap and Palantir: Alibaba, Perplexity launching enterprise agent platforms. Palantir’s system mirrors AI agent hierarchy solves the unstructured data/silo problem. Karpathy’s job disruption analysis: 34 million jobs in near-term decline.
(47:19–49:09) 2026 playbook: Long-duration assets under pressure, commodity boom, buy weakness in silver and copper. Adoption gap is a theme to trade. Jensen Huang interview on CPUs and the move to whole-rack architecture, 18-name list for subscribers.
(49:09–54:45) Terminal value and moat erosion: Chamath on AI making every moat temporary. SaaS disruption, 50,000 companies doing $500K–$5M each, run by 1–3 people plus AI agents. Bitcoin and crypto as decentralization of ownership. Bitcoin buy signal from Renmack on excessive shorts. S&P could reach 6,100 if oil stays elevated and recession fears rise. Only Bitcoin and Ethereum above 50-day MA.

Watch here

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