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The SaaS Apocalypse, Bitcoin Crash, the PMI Breakout, and Why Palantir is Critical to the Market Now

Published on February 8, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I break down one of the most consequential weeks in the AI-driven rotation. The ISM manufacturing PMI broke above 50 for the first time with the largest monthly jump since 1995 outside of COVID while the SaaS sector experienced its worst relative drawdown against the NDX in modern history. The IGV-to-NDX 30-day rate of change is unprecedented, worse than when the Fed started aggressively raising rates. Meanwhile, growth versus value posted its worst 7-day rate of change since the GFC. The pattern now mirrors the post-dot-com rotation into commodities and infrastructure that lasted six years.

I explain why Bitcoin remains correlated to the SaaS and the venture capital overhang. VC three-year annualized returns through June 2025 were zero, and crypto VC boomed alongside SaaS in 2021. The catalyst for Bitcoin to break free is the rise of AI agents and the breaking of that SaaS correlation. On Friday, we got a glimpse: Palantir and Bitcoin were up while Salesforce and Adobe were flat. Palantir’s commercial revenue grew 130% year-over-year, validating the “agents as a service” thesis where Palantir sits atop the orchestration layer that traditional SAS companies are losing. Why is this so important? Claude Code is the inflection point accelerating this shift, and software PE multiples have now fallen below where they were when the iPhone launched.

I also walk through Elon Musk’s interview on why AI is slamming into a hardware wall, why edge AI is the escape valve from the power bottleneck, and why the $90 trillion opportunity is in inference and deployment not the $6 trillion in centralized data center training. Plus: the US and China both announced critical mineral stockpiling programs, Brazil emerges as a sleeping giant, and stablecoin volume hit a record $10 trillion.

Timestamps

(00:00–03:36) Bitcoin: John Roque’s amazing 60K target hit, VC/SaaS correlation explained, macro thesis unchanged despite drawdown
(03:42–06:33) Bitcoin as most liquid hedge for private SaaS exposure; December 8th papers on Bitcoin and the great software rerating of 2025–2030
(06:33–09:10) SAS collapse: IGV vs NDX 30-day rate of change unprecedented; VC index overlay with IGV and Bitcoin
(09:10–13:25) VC overhang: 2021 bubble, Silicon Valley Bank, ChatGPT disruption, and why Bitcoin is directly connected
(13:12–18:02) Claude Code as inflection point; GitHub commits explosion; Goldman Sachs tapping Anthropic; OpenAI Frontier diagram
(18:05–22:55) Palantir: commercial revenue +130% YoY; Ultron/agentic model; why it separates from SaaS wreckage
(22:55–27:42) SaaS contagion fears overblown — ex-Microsoft software is ~$2T, near energy + materials combined; software PE below iPhone-era levels
(27:06–31:40) Weekly recap: S&P flat, Mag 7 down 4.7%, Russell up 2%; small caps 79% beat rate, best ever; equal weight ETF at all-time highs
(31:40–36:44) Turbulence model warning; sector rotation matching dot-com-to-China pattern; Chevron vs Salesforce up 60% YTD; growth vs value worst in 25 years
(36:44–42:58) PMI breaks above 50, biggest jump since 1995; DRAM prices driving hardware shift; equal weight semis, Corning, Teradyne
(42:58–48:49) Big tech $650B capex but buybacks suffering; critical minerals stockpiling by US and China; Brazil as mineral sleeping giant
(49:01–58:50) Elon Musk interview: hardware wall, edge AI as escape valve, $90T inference opportunity vs $6T training; open-source models threatening hyperscalers
(58:50–1:01:16) Stablecoin volume record $10T; Bitcoin/SAS correlation breaking is the catalyst; Palantir deep dive coming

Watch here

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