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OpenAI Virus, Agent Swarms, And The New Volatility Of A Parabolic World

Published on February 1, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I break down why the software sector is now the worst performer year-to-date (down 12%) while energy, capital goods, and materials lead and why this divergence is just getting started. Microsoft, Oracle, and SAP are all struggling with the same problem: massive remaining performance obligations (RPOs) that can’t convert to revenue because data center bottlenecks won’t clear fast enough all while competing with exponential AI progress. The hyperscalers are spending, but the capacity isn’t coming online at the same pace.

Meanwhile, the scarcity trade accelerates. Silver had its fifth consecutive up month despite Friday’s collapse, gold posted its best month in 15 years, and the critical minerals story is becoming impossible to ignore. Samsung is raising NAND prices 100%. SK Hynix reported HBM revenue more than doubled year-over-year. Elon Musk is now framing memory as Tesla’s long-term key bottleneck saying they may need to build their own semiconductor fab. The Chevron vs. Salesforce, scarcity vs abundance, trade has just begun and is up 45% this month alone.

On the macro side, PMIs are set to rise with Chicago posting a strong number following Empire and Philly Fed, yet consumer confidence hit a 12-year low the same day stocks made all-time highs. Amazon announced 16,000 layoffs due to AI. UPS is cutting 30,000 jobs. Oracle may cut 20-30,000. The Fed held, but the labor market is weakening beneath the surface. I also discuss why AI agent swarms pose systemic risk to traditional finance and the irony of why Bitcoin is far more prepared for this than JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs.

Timestamps

(00:00–01:08) Intro: Software collapse, silver/gold Friday collapse, Fed holds, PMI rising, long scarcity/short abundance theme for the year
(01:08–04:44) Software breakdown: Microsoft, Oracle, SAP charts deteriorating; RPO-to-revenue conversion problem as data center bottlenecks persist
(04:44–07:26) Competition speed: Cursor went $0 to $100M ARR in 12 months, now being canceled; Anthropic revenue trajectory exploding; anything built on code faces repricing
(07:26–09:24) Weekly recap: S&P flat for third week; sector YTD performance—energy #1, capital goods #2, materials #3, software worst at -12%
(09:24–10:46) Fed/Labor: Fed holds, layoffs announced (Amazon 16K, UPS 30K, Oracle 20-30K), consumer confidence 12-year low same day as all-time highs
(10:46–12:28) PMIs: Regional PMIs bouncing, Chicago strong, could be highest since 2022; reinforces long scarcity/short abundance
(12:28–15:30) Critical minerals: Silver in every AI component, copper/silver needed for electricity buildout, Brazil “green computer arbitrage” thesis
(15:30–17:04) Energy vs. Software: Chevron vs. Salesforce trade up 45% this month; XLE over IGV in early stages; prefer energy over SMH now
(17:04–18:47) IPO wave: OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic, SpaceX all coming—echoes of Blackstone 2007; growth bucket getting saturated
(18:47–22:44) Memory scarcity: NAND 2026 production sold out, Samsung +100% on prices, SK Hynix HBM doubled YoY, Elon says memory is Tesla’s limiting factor
(22:44–25:27) AI leaders on disruption: Hassabis/Amodei interview—AI shift 10x bigger than industrial revolution; long-duration assets becoming problematic
(25:27–28:10) AI agent swarm risk: Bitcoin more prepared than traditional banks; expect an event with agent swarms hitting fiat systems
(28:10–31:58) AI adoption gap: Claude taking X by storm; productivity boom already here; revenue per employee up 75% at top AI companies
(31:58–35:27) Optical fiber bottleneck: Meta-Corning $6B deal validates constraint migration from GPU → power → optical
(35:27–38:08) Bitcoin & closing: Chart still struggling but long-term thesis intact; parabolic moves are the new normal; NFT utility thesis emerging

Watch here

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