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Ukraine Video Update

Published on November 28, 2025

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

A new diplomatic push to end the war between Russia and Ukraine has started, and has for the first time led to direct and substantive negotiations between the Trump Administration and the Ukrainian government, seconded by European officials. Diplomacy is now about to broaden to also include the Russian aggressor as Trump Administratoin officials will visit Moscow in the coming weeks, all amidst a deepening corruption scandal in Ukraine which today cost President Zelensky’s number 2 – Andrei Yermak – his job as head of the Presidential Office.

Attached is a brief video update (link Here), recorded with Colin Crowley, in which I walk through the main implication of recent events in Ukraine related diplomacy:

1)Direct negotiations between the Trump Administration, Ukraine and European representatives marks the restart of diplomacy and clearly shows the Trump Administration’s determination to remain directly engaged in the conflict

2) The Russian government has to date shown no willingness to compromise on any of its war aims – territory, restrictions on future Ukrainian sovereignty, or Ukraine’s armed forces – indicating that negotiations with Moscow are likely to be prolonged and could last many months

3) The resignation of Andrei Yermak, while evidently a setback for President Zelensky, will not dramatically politically weaken him domestically or vs. allies in Europe. Rather his ouster is likely to be viewed as a (long!) overdue decisive action against corruption at the highest places, providing Zelensky a better domestic political platform to resist maximalist Russian negotiation demands

4) The general framework for what the eventual ceasefire/peace deal will look like is emerging – Ukraine will give de facto control over the territory that Russia has conquered, but not legally recognize this or handover the rest of Donetsk. Russia will get no more land, and no influence over Ukraine’s future in the form of restrictions on Ukraine’s military, alliances or other sovereign decisions

5) Russia has not yet indicated any willingness to accede to such an outcome, implying that more pressure will still have to be placed on Moscow for any peace deal to be possible

Jacob

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