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Why “This Is the Worst Jobs Market in 50 Years” (Outside of a Recession) and Why It’s Permanent

Published on October 26, 2025

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I break down why this is being called the worst jobs market in 50 years and why the structural forces behind it aren’t reversing. The S&P hit new all-time highs despite momentum shocks hitting speculative stocks, gold and other assets, but beneath the surface, we’re entering the most important week of the year: bulls versus bears, AI versus tariffs. With an 80% probability of a tariff agreement between the US and China before November 10th as Xi and Trump meet, any positive outcome could unleash significant buying across risk assets, especially since spending is already happening and rate cuts are underway. Unlike April and May, the infrastructure is in place for a rally if geopolitical tensions ease.

On the labor front, despite a focus on immigration, the weakness reflects a deeper reality: the AI-driven job disruption is permanent, not cyclical. From the Karpathy-Altman AGI debate to Tesla and ASML earnings, we’re witnessing the parabolic acceleration of AI adoption forcing a K-shaped economy, one lane moving slowly (traditional finance), the other in hyperdrive (AI and crypto). This bifurcation is why I’m launching “Lesson One” of the AI journey series to help viewers transition from the slow lane to the fast lane before these worlds merge in roughly five years. The window to adapt is narrowing as knowledge work faces exponential disruption.

The crypto thesis remains compelling despite Bitcoin’s sideways consolidation near year-ago levels. While OG whales have sold over 240,000 BTC in the past month as part of profit-taking and estate planning, the regulatory foundation is solidifying. The real catalyst is emerging at the intersection of AI agents and on-chain payments through initiatives like Coinbase’s Model Context Protocol. Meanwhile, Argentina’s weekend election could trigger the first major test of stablecoin adoption during a currency crisis, potentially validating the thesis that dollar-backed stablecoins will siphon $1 trillion from emerging market deposits by 2028, as Standard Chartered projects. If Argentina’s bonds break below recent lows, watch for a potential Silicon Valley Bank-style run into stablecoins.

Timestamps

(00:00–02:58) Introduction: New S&P highs, momentum shock in gold, Goldman’s “worst jobs market in 50 years,” bulls vs. bears and AI vs. tariffs week ahead; introducing AI Journey Lesson One series
(02:58–05:38) Market Setup & China-US: S&P analysis, tariff probabilities (80% chance of agreement), comparison to 2018, gold risk if positive outcome emerges; Taiwan and structural deal implications
(05:38–06:44) Retail & Gambling: Young people gambling is culture not warning sign; DraftKings, PCE spending going parabolic; retail assumption that government won’t let markets fall
(06:44–10:00) Trump-Xi Summit Analysis: Analysts expect tension dial-down not sweeping accord; tariff agreement versus trade agreement; potential for unleashing risk asset buying
(10:00–30:00) Jobs Market Deep Dive: Why Goldman calls this worst in 50 years; structural AI disruption not cyclical; K-shaped economy accelerating; knowledge worker displacement; Tesla, ASML, and Karpathy-Altman case
(30:00–50:28) AI Lesson One: “Make your bed” mentality; preparing for dystopian five years as humanoids arrive; transitioning from slow lane (traditional finance) to fast lane (AI/crypto); world merging in 5 years
(50:28–53:29) Bitcoin Analysis: Up 20% YTD but sideways from year ago; OG whales selling 240K+ BTC in past month; Galaxy’s $9B sale; volatility compression; lack of retail excitement making it “boring”
(53:29–54:28) Crypto Regulatory Momentum: Banks laying out crypto visions; comparing to 2007-2008 iPhone moment; AI agents as trigger point; Coinbase MCP enabling agents to get on-chain
(54:28–57:24) Argentina Stablecoin Test: Weekend election could trigger first major adoption test; potential SVB-style bank run into stablecoins within 48 hours; Argentina vs. El Salvador bonds; Standard Chartered’s $1T emerging market exodus projection by 2028

Watch here

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