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The End Of The World As We Know It

Published on April 13, 2025

Jordi Visser

It was a historic week for the markets—one that felt more like a month.

It began with fears of a potential “Black Monday,” followed by a trial-balloon rumor from the White House hinting at a 90-day pause in tariffs. Then came the collapse of the basis trade, triggered by a historic spike in U.S. Treasury yields. The President, seemingly unfazed by the turmoil, told the public it was a great time to buy—just hours before officially announcing the tariff pause. The dollar had one of its worst days ever. At one point, U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar were all down nearly 5% for the month—something I haven’t seen since my days in emerging markets.

👉 Watch this week’s video where I break down what this all means for markets going forward.

The administration has shown its hand—and whether it’s a stock market put or a bond market put, what matters is that there is a put. That changes how we should think about market risk. When the top of the levered global capital structure—U.S. Treasuries—sees a historic rise in yields, both in absolute and relative terms, the financial world as we knew it has changed.

I explore the implications of this shift and what to expect in terms of volatility, regardless of how the tariff saga plays out.

To close out the video, I connect Joseph Schumpeter, AI, and Bitcoin—tying it back to his theory of creative destruction, which predicted this kind of upheaval over 80 years ago. Lost in the chaos of the last week is this simple truth: with the left tail now seemingly protected, AI remains the dominant force shaping the future.

Timestamps:

00:00 – A Historic Week Begins
From Black Monday fears to the collapse of confidence in Treasuries — the foundation of the financial system is shaking.

02:49 – Basis Trade Collapse
One of the most leveraged trades in the world unwinds. Liquidity evaporates. Volatility takes its place.

04:50 – Treasuries Break, Volatility Spikes
The most important asset in the capital structure no longer offers stability. This changes everything.

14:38 – The U.S. Looks Like an Emerging Market
Debt, currency weakness, and bond volatility raise alarming comparisons to past EM crises.

19:19 – The Fed, AI, and Small Biz Pain
The Fed signals support, but tariffs and rates are crushing small businesses. AI and automation are stepping in.

26:08 – The Rise of National Capitalism
De-globalization accelerates. Nations prioritize domestic survival over cooperation. Napier’s thesis is playing out.

39:22 – Schumpeter, Bitcoin, and the Endgame
Capitalism self-cannibalizes. Populism rises. Bitcoin offers an alternative to soft socialism and fiat decay.

Click here to watch the full video

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