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Geopolitics, Central Bankers, and US Fiscal

Published on February 11, 2024

Kim Wallace

Sandra Namoos

SUMMARY

Geopolitics continues as the lead macro risk uncertainty into another week with events in Gaza, Europe, and the US stressing the point. The Senate worked through the weekend consuming days of procedural delays in hopes of passing the $95 billion war aid bill by Friday. The annual Munich Security Conference attendees have no shortage of topics to consider, especially potential consequences of NATO member defense budgets. Transatlantic monetary policy makers address rates policy, bank risks, and inflation in numerous events. Treasury and the Congressional Budget Office offer views on fiscal imbalances and the near-term outlook. Congress explores Fed lending programs, US financial sanctions and anti-money laundering edicts, and Houthis aggression in the Red Sea.

OUTLOOK (all times Eastern)

Weekend

The World Governments Summit runs through Wednesday in Dubai.

Monday

President Biden hosts King Abdullah of Jordan.

9:20 a.m., Fed Governor Michelle Bowman addresses national community bankers, San Antonio.

12:00 p.m., Richmond Fed Bank’s Tom Barkin speaks to the Atlanta Economics Club.

1:00 p.m., BoE Governor Andrew Bailey delivers Loughborough University lecture.

1:00 p.m., Minneapolis Fed Bank’s Neel Kashkari moderates a discussion with former IBM CEO Ginni Rometty at the Economic Club of Minnesota.

2:00 p.m., Treasury’s monthly budget statement released.

Tuesday

NY-3 Congressional special election to fill the seat formerly held by George Santos.

NATO and Ukraine under the auspices of the Ramstein Group discuss Ukraine’s military needs.

Turkish President Erdogan visits Egypt.

3:30 a.m., ECB’s annual single resolution board annual conference begins.

Wednesday

Indonesia holds presidential election.

9:30 a.m., Chicago Fed Bank’s Austan Goolsbee participates in a Q&A session with Council on Foreign Relations members, New York City.

10:00 a.m., House Budget Committee hears from CBO Director Phillip Swagel on the 2024 budget and economic outlook.

10:00 a.m., US financial sanctions and new beneficial ownership regulations are among the topics the House Financial Services Committee will discuss with Treasury’s Terror, Finance, and Intelligence officials.

2:00 p.m., a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee examines threats to Middle East stability and US interests from the Houthis.

3:30 p.m., the three-day National Association for Business Economics annual policy conference begins in Washington, DC.

4:00 p.m., Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr discusses bank regulation and monetary policy at NABE’s meeting.

Thursday

NATO defense ministers meet in Brussels.

10:00 a.m., a House Financial Services subcommittee discusses the Fed’s discount window and emergency lending issues.

1:15 p.m., Fed Governor Christoper Waller examines the international role of the US dollar, Nassau, Bahamas.

7:00 p.m., Atlanta Fed Bank’s Raphael Bostic spends dinner with the Money Maketeeers of NYU.

Friday

Start of the three-day 60th Munich Security Conference, a global national security hitters gathering featuring several current and former policymakers.

9:10 a.m., Barr speaks at the Columbia Law School Banking Conference, Manhattan.

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