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It’s History and You Are There – S&P Utilities

Published on February 6, 2024

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By

John Roque

Well…you’re witnessing history and it’s not the kind where NVIDIA makes another new high. It’s the kind of history that is an unfortunate history…

Right now, the Utility Sector has its lowest “ever” (for as far back as I have data or 35 years) market cap weighting in the S&P 500. The current Utility Sector market cap weighting is 2.15% which moves it beneath the 2.21% weighting from 1999.

Some of you might want to imaginatively say, “Hey, we might be at a similar point in the overall market as we were in late 1999…” And I’ll say, “But there’s no failure yet – anywhere – for tech / Big 7 / Mega-Cap leaders…in late 1999 / early 2000 the key was that the the leaders began to fail; it wasn’t that the Utilities were at a 2.2% weight that turned things, it was that tech started to fail.”

Source: 22V Research

In addition, there is only 1 stock – that’s right – just 1 stock in the Utility Sector with a Good / Strong Technical Score. 89% have Weak Scores. My historical reading of these figures says I should be looking for the Sector to turn / improve because the Weak Scores can only go from 89% to all Weak Scores at 100% and the Good / Strong Scores can only go from 1 stock to 0 stocks.  I’ll be vigilant in looking for a bottom / low / turn, but so far author Alice Childress was right with the title of her 1973 book, “A Hero Ain’t Nothin’ But a Sandwich.”

A screenshot of a data sheet

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Source: 22V Research

S&P Utility Sector – Monthly w/ 12-Month MA and MACD. No turn evident yet either for price (top) or monthly momentum (bottom).

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SECTOR OUTPERFORM: An “outperform” rating anticipates the company will outperform the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

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