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US Jobs, FOMC and Other Central Banks, Israel-Hamas Negotiations, US Border Politics, Haley Fundraiser

Published on January 28, 2024

Kim Wallace

Sandra Namoos

SUMMARY

Geopolitics and US presidential election politics will stretch investor attention spans in a week the FOMC reveals policy preferences, Treasury discusses quarterly refunding, and January US jobs reports offer additional macroeconomic clues. Even as Israel and Hamas reportedly circle a protracted pause in violence to swap hostages and prisoners, events manifest anything but de-escalation. Iran’s proxies last week expanded the sphere of combat uncertainty to Russian and US assets testing military tolerances and diplomatic abilities.

Both chambers of Congress on Tuesday will be in DC at the same time for the first time in nearly two weeks. Their worklist hasn’t changed in two months, even if the dynamics have. President Biden and House Speaker Johnson maneuver tactically on southern border policies and politics, while Congress attempts to move forward on war assistance for Ukraine and Israel. The US hopes to help structure and deliver a pause in combat hostilities so the sides may exchange hostages and prisoners. Success at this step could lead to more ambitious discussions focused on ending this phase of hostilities.

Nikki Haley hopes to replenish campaign coffers and further antagonize former President Trump during a Tuesday fundraiser in Manhattan. A recent Gallup poll casts shade on both Trump and Biden: Felonies, Old Age Heavily Count Against Candidates.

OUTLOOK (all times Eastern)

Monday

8:00 a.m., ECB Vice President de Guindos addresses Citi’s Private Bank’s Investment Outlook conference, Madrid.

Tuesday

Conference Board consumer confidence survey released.

GOOG and MSFT earnings guidance provides the first public opportunity to comment on FTC’s OpenAI inquiry.

EU defense ministers hold two-day meetings in Brussels.

10:00 a.m., Red Sea shipping risks is the topic of a House Maritime Transportation subcommittee hearing.

10:00 a.m., the House Financial Institutions subcommittee holds a hearing on US bank regulators’ capital proposals.

10:00 a.m., the House Energy and Commerce Health subcommittee examines healthcare “unsustainable costs for patients, employers and taxpayers.”

10:00 a.m., Senate Budget Committee members explore methods for expanding affordable housing.

10:30 a.m., Bundesbank President Nagel discusses “currency guardians” at the IfW Institutes New Economy Forum.

6:50 p.m., BoJ release January meeting minutes.

Wednesday

US quarterly refunding process occupy much of the week.

EU 2014 sanctions against Russia for Crimea invasion expire.

2:00 p.m., the FOMC announces policy meeting decisions, including longer-run goals and strategy statement but no economic projections. Powell presser begins 30 minutes later.

Thursday

EU leaders discuss additional aid to Ukraine.

7:00 a.m., BoE quarterly monetary policy decisions published.

Friday

8:30 a.m., US January payroll reports published.

EU foreign ministers hold two-day meetings in Brussels.

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