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New Hampshire’s Implications for Trump and Biden

Published on January 24, 2024

Kim Wallace

Sandra Namoos

SUMMARY

Almost since the 2021 Inauguration a Biden/Trump rematch in 2024 became a discussion topic. We do not dismiss that surprise developments remain possible, but it appears likely the widely anticipated contest between President Biden and former President Trump will happen. To that end, we present initial thoughts on what a Trump volatility basket might resemble. We are not calling a race likely to endure another three quarters but rather responding to numerous readers’ ideas and questions. We’ll soon revisit investment thoughts generated from the Biden administration’s policies the past three years, highlighting those ideas new or amplified that fit into his basket.

On the topic of elections, please join us on Tuesday, February 6 at 10:30 a.m. for a webinar discussion with Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections about candidates, issues, sentiment, and Washington’s 2025 balance of power outlook (Register: here).

OUTLOOK

Former Governor Nikki Haley’s more important campaign stop this month is January 30 for a Manhattan fundraiser. Possibly as the last viable anti-Trumper, Haley seems personally engaged in drawing contrasts between herself and him. That requires money more than votes at this stage. The New Hampshire primary yesterday very likely ended any suspense about the GOP nomination contest but could offer hints about the general election trends. We offer a few observations:

The record voter turnout showed that Trump on the ballot boosts turnout on both or all sides.
Haley yesterday won the Independent vote by 24 percentage points. Our view remains that the 47^th president will need that bloc to win. According to recent polling (see the chart below), the Independent bloc is the only US political faction that has gained self-identified members since former President Obama’s election.
The former UN ambassador dropped a zinging observation in the final hours of the New Hampshire primary alluding that a vote for Trump is a vote for the Biden administration and Kamala Harris for President. With that she underscored how tameness is not likely a term many will apply to the next nine months in US politics.

Considering how a re-elected President Trump would affect markets likely is only partly informed by his record in office and idiosyncratic statements. We start with a look at what can easily be erased of President Biden’s record. The balance of power in Congress is another determinative factor in imagining how a change at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue might influence trading or investing narratives. Without unified government and a governing majority in the Senate, broad policy changes outside executive orders will be limited. With those thoughts in mind, we offer our first effort at a 2024 Trump basket for your consideration and possible denigration.

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