Thanks to everyone who responded to our survey. Please hit us back with feedback or questions you’d like to see asked – our goal is to help, after all.
Quick summary, most respondents:
On to the results.
Earnings Season: 71% of our respondents expect 2Q earnings season, which kicks off in earnest next week, to be a negative catalyst for stocks. Only 11% expect it to be a positive catalyst.
Relatedly, our respondents expect 2Q EPS to miss expectations, growing 3.5% from 2021 vs 4.3% consensus. A meaningful number expect eps to decline y/y. Even more think OTHER people expect a y/y decline.
Investors we polled think 2022 eps will come in around $212, much lower than consensus estimates of $228. $212 is +10% y/y. The distribution of earnings expectations is worse than what people think OTHER people expect. More investors are anticipating an outright earnings drawdown (33% responded less than $207) than they guess their peers estimate (20%). Some are anticipating a deep drawdown of -10% or more, but none think their peers anticipate a drawdown that bad.
