Our entire repository of COVID charts is HERE.
The CDC released some data on breakthrough cases, though there is a considerable time lag (latest data is October 2). The data does not offer timely info on current case growth, but it does show that the infection rate of vaccinated people started increasing relative to unvaccinated people in September. In other words, vaccinated people have started contracting COVID at a rate closer to that of the unvaccinated. This illustrates the importance of booster shots, especially heading into the holidays as travel plans skyrocket. On the bright side, 41% of those 65+ (the most vulnerable to serious illness) have received a booster. It is also important to note that the hospitalization rate for vaccinated people stayed extremely low through the end of September. Both are a good sign for protection against severe cases.
Axios published a survey indicating 2/3 of Americans will celebrate this Thanksgiving with friends or family outside their immediate households. About half of those say their gatherings could include unvaccinated people. TSA crossings are at a post-pandemic high.
New antiviral treatments are a significant development. Pfizer’s paxlovid and Merck’s molnupiravir both dramatically reduce the risk of hospitalization and death, which limits how disruptive COVID can be by decoupling case growth from hospitalizations and deaths independent of vaccination status. They are particularly helpful in protecting the vaccine hesitant. The U.S. government has placed large orders for both treatments (and is rolling out boosters, 73% are still willing to be vaccinated). This is important to keep in mind as COVID sentiment drops.
Case growth is higher in the U.S., particularly in the Midwest and parts of the Southwest. But activity remains robust and daily vaccinations (booster shots) are increasing.
Case growth is still increasing in Europe. Deaths are as well, though the ratio of deaths to cases has declined. German officials are now considering compulsory vaccinations, similar to rules passed recently in Austria. New restrictions are being imposed, mostly focused on the unvaccinated. But booster shots are being rolled out to combat case growth and stringency indices in the hardest hit countries are well below early 2021. Austria-style lockdowns are still the anomaly; that’s likely to remain the case in higher vaccination countries. Restrictions this time around will not be as intense, thanks to vaccines and treatments.
Global case growth is still concentrated in Europe and the US.
Charts for every state and country we have data for are HERE.
