Our entire repository of COVID charts is HERE.
Luis Gallego, head of British Airways owner IAG, said on Monday its transatlantic bookings had already reached nearly 100% of 2019 levels after the United States dropped restrictions earlier this month. British Airlines generates over $1 billion in revenue from its Heathrow to JFK connection every year. TSA crossings have moved to a post-pandemic high since international travel has opened back up. Airline equities, on the other hand, continue to underperform. Concern about COVID case growth and input costs are overwhelming positive news about air traffic.
The EU accounted for 16% of air traffic in 2019. Smoothed case growth in the EU hit a new high. Cases are increasing across the region.
Germany’s case growth is particularly bad. Germany’s health minister said, “Probably by the end of the winter, more or less everyone in Germany will be vaccinated, cured or dead.” Doctors are reportedly ready to apply a triage system again. But the emphasis is still on vaccinations, not blanket lockdowns. Austria-style lockdowns are still the anomaly; that’s likely to remain the case in higher vaccination countries. The tools we have – vaccinations and treatments – still work. Stringency indices show restrictions are increasing but remain below the intensity in 2020 and early-2021, despite what headlines may suggest.
Case growth is higher in the U.S. as well. Growth is concentrated in the Midwest and parts of the Southwest. But activity remains robust and daily vaccinations (booster shots) are increasing.
Charts for every state and country we have data for are HERE.
