Our entire repository of COVID charts is HERE.
The UK reported the most new COVID cases and has the highest case growth average since July. A mutation of the delta variant, delta plus, has been growing in prevalence, now in 8% of the sequenced new cases. Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb called for urgent research into this sub-variant to determine if it is more transmissible or has partial immune evasion. There isn’t a clear indication that the mutation is more transmissible, but that’s also why we need more data. The delta plus strain includes a mutation that has been associated with an increased risk of reinfection (also found in the South African variant). But German researchers found delta plus doesn’t appear to be more dangerous than delta.
As a reminder, we have focused on and continue to focus on severe cases. Severe cases change behavior and make lockdowns more likely (and more politically palatable); case growth without hospitalizations and deaths is significantly less disruptive. If delta plus proves to be no more deadly than delta, we don’t expect meaningful changes in behavior. One note – we don’t have a good read on how countries in Asia will respond to delta plus if delta plus becomes widespread. That could strain already-strained supply chains.
Hospitalizations and deaths have not increased meaningfully in the UK. The ratio of cases to deaths is still near an all-time low. Both hospitalizations and deaths lag case growth, so we will continue to monitor them if case growth continues to increase while delta plus continues to grow in prevalence. Mobility is still near its highs. Behavior is not being meaningfully affected so far. Vaccine administration has stalled but the vax rate is ~73%.
Delta plus is a reminder that COVID tail risk still exists. Prices for extreme delta hedges will likely increase again if the new strain gains traction. Skew has been consistently above the 75th percentile since the pandemic began, at least partly reflecting left-tail economic risk from COVID lockdowns and residuals (like supply chain constraints).
COVID trends in supply chain countries are better. Case growth is down. Mobility is the highest since May. And the vaccination rates are either ~80% or still improving.
Global case growth is still decreasing.
As is case growth in the United States. No update here.
Charts for every state and country we have data for are HERE.
