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Linear vs. Exponential: AGI Has Arrived But Oil, Bonds and the Fed Oh My

Published on September 13, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I open with how the market is telling you exactly which world it lives in. Core inflation and PPI came in hot, Fed hike odds jumped toward 90%, crude broke higher, the war worsened, and over those two days the S&P was up. Those inputs mattered when housing and autos drove the economy. AI capex drives it now, and as I showed last week, linear sentiment based on the past may care, but the capex build does not. Revisions continue to rise, PMIs are firm, and HYG relative to IEF continues to rise even as bonds sell off. Credit is saying it does not care, and neither should you.

The real news of the week is that AGI has arrived. I am going to say that again. The real news of the week is that AGI has arrived. Jensen Huang said it directly with Astra. Research agents are now generating 3.1 workdays per human workday, and 10,000 agents working in parallel for 88 hours cracked the Navier-Stokes challenge. Compute converts into intelligence, intelligence multiplies into thousands of agents, and those agents get pointed at physics, energy, medicine and manufacturing. That expands the total addressable economy at the same time it shortens corporate duration. Multiples compress for anything that stops growing, and the PEG ratio on the S&P is the cheapest in 30 years while profit margins keep rising. On the depreciation debate, H100 rental prices are essentially unchanged from three years ago and rose 22% on the month, which validates Gavin Baker’s point that hyperscaler cash flow estimates are too low and credit needs may be hundreds of billions smaller than feared.

I also walk through the AI trading desk I built this week using Astra’s agents, the subscriber video that gives you every prompt and the full GitHub repo, and how to plug the result into paper trading at Robinhood, Moomoo or Interactive Brokers. Then I turn to crypto, now about 30% of my focus: Robinhood as the epicenter of the AI-crypto-macro nexus, Robinhood Chain fees topping Solana, tokenization catalysts around the Clarity Act, and William Mougayar’s decade-old Ethereum talk as the best framework for valuing the ecosystem. The Amazon 1997 to 2013 lesson applies: by the time the valuation makes sense, you have already missed 27,000%.

Timestamps

(00:00–01:30) Opening: A personal note on the 25th anniversary of September 11th.
(01:30–06:00) Linear vs. exponential: Hot CPI, hot PPI, higher Fed odds, higher crude, a worsening war, and the S&P still up. Why oil, bonds and the Fed stopped driving the economy in 2008 and AI capex drives it now.
(06:00–09:30) Bessent vs. the market: Rate hike odds at 90%, buyback upsizing sold, the Fed’s third mandate on long rates, and why fighting the government is the wrong trade.
(09:30–13:00) Market internals: S&P holding the 50-day in a flag formation, revisions 32 up, PMIs strong, HYG/IEF rising as bonds sell off, AI thematic portfolio breaking above its 50-day, Ethereum breaking out vs. Bitcoin.
(13:00–20:00) AGI has arrived: Jensen Huang on Astra, 3.1 workdays per human day, Navier-Stokes solved by 10,000 parallel agents, the new GDP formula built on digital labor, and why TAM expands while corporate duration shrinks.
(20:00–26:00) Empowerment and the entrepreneurial mindset: Greg Brockman on merging chat, agents, desktop and Codex into one system, the six-part subscriber series, and why 15 to 24 year olds and unhappy knowledge workers should start now.
(26:00–33:00) Building an AI trading desk: Astra running six agents on a trading account, the 99% rejection filter, the structural-trend, resetting, coiled, ignition framework built on ATR, the 100-name AI universe, and why multiple compression means you cannot make money the old-fashioned way in Nvidia or Micron.
(33:00–37:00) The subscriber treasure hunt video: GitHub, prompts, code, Socrates mode, and plugging paper-trading systems into Robinhood, Moomoo and Interactive Brokers.
(37:00–42:00) Demand and depreciation: Microsoft tripling compute, unprecedented Astra demand, H100 rental prices flat over three years and up 22% on the month, Gavin Baker on hyperscaler cash flows, Paul Tudor Jones, Greg Jensen and the rising cyber threat.
(42:00–48:00) Crypto and the Robinhood convergence: Robinhood Chain fees topping Solana, Arbitrum surging, tokenized stocks, Nasdaq’s $100 million Kraken investment, stablecoin launches, and Clarity Act odds still below 20%.
(48:00–54:00) How to value Ethereum: William Mougayar’s TED talk and endgame framework, AI agents as the missing piece, Amazon’s 27,000% before it ever had a PE below 100, Trust Shift, and Freedom Tech DC on September 22–23.

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