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22V Surveys: Investors’ Focus is on the Urate

Published on September 3, 2026

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By

Dennis DeBusschere

Kevin Brocks

Sophia Wang

Quick summary, investors…

  • Are watching tomorrow’s Payrolls release with the same intensity as normal
    • The urate has gained focus
  • Think the market reaction will be risk-on
    • 48% mixed/negligible
    • 33% risk-on
    • 19% risk-off
  • Expect…
    • Payrolls at 50k (BBG consensus 55k)
    • AHE in-line at 0.3%
    • Urate higher at 4.2%, BBG consensus 4.1%
  • Believe strong payrolls data is risk-off.
    • Investors are split on the level of the urate that would have a clear risk-on or risk-off reaction. The ties into the view that the clearly inflationary level of the urate has been dropping in their view this year.

PAYROLLS: 48% of investors believe that tomorrow’s data will be mixed/ negligible. 33% believe risk-on and 19% believe risk-off. 48% of investors believe OTHER people think the data will be mixed/ negligible.

Risk-off has slowly gained popularity over the last three months.

The ranges for risk-on and risk-off payrolls estimates are narrower and more defined than last month. This month a higher payrolls number = risk-off reaction. Lower payrolls = risk-on reaction.

The unemployment rate results are more mixed. Investors are split on the level of the urate that would prompt a clear market reaction, with the average estimate clustering near 4.1% across the risk-on and risk-off scenarios.

Labor market data is being watched the same as normal for the seventh month in a row with a tail towards more than normal.

Source: 22V Research

Investors’ focus has shifted to the urate. Focus on Payrolls has decreased since last month.

DATA ESTIMATES: Our survey consensus for Payrolls is 50k, below Bloomberg’s 55k. 56% expect below sell-side consensus.

Survey consensus for AHE is in-line at 0.3% with a tail to lower.

Survey consensus for the urate is 4.2%, higher than Bloomberg’s 4.1%.

Investors think that a Urate of 4.0% implies inflationary pressure. This has become increasingly consensus.

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