Jacob Rubashkin of InsideElections updated his range of potential November 4 election results through the informed perspective of someone sleep deprived from traveling all regions of our country to speak with candidates and strategists of both dominant parties, and pollsters.
Please enjoy this playback of his content-rich 37 mins presentation and discussion with webinar participants.
Interesting Insight
When asked what differentiates 2026 from previous midterm elections this century, Jacob did not hesitate to identify “Democrats’ anger.” While that fury perhaps is not epic in the Republic’s 250 years, it covers the President and traditional opposition party leaders. In short, Democrats are upset at Trump for doing too much they oppose and at their own for doing too little to stop him.
Key Points
Trump. While his actions contribute to a declining approval rating, Jacob strongly believes the President cares about the 120th Congress’s balance of power. Anything but a continuation of unitary party control exposes him and his administration to unrelenting oversight scrutiny absent the past six quarters. Jacob noted that any pivot in the President’s behavior would need to occur this month to affect Election Day sentiment.
Democrats. His discussions with self-proclaimed Democrats revealed a group “at their wits end” about national policy and elected Democrats inability to influence those policies.
History. Only three times in the past 100 years has a US president’s party gained House seats after a midterm. US voters have become “thermostatic” this century regularly switching power between parties in search of answers to lingering problem.
Dreaded I Words. Iran and inflation remain the two biggest drags on the President’s worsening net disapproval rating. Cost of living issues, however, are most voters’ chief concern.
Focus States. In Texas, Talarico has a shot at winning but needs strong support from the suburbs of Austin, Dallas, and Houston to overcome Republicans’ statewide advantage. Jacob cautioned that the lack of Republican “consolidation” around Paxton could help produce a surprise D win. Up north on IH-35, Jacob sees no chance Democrats win the Senate if they lose the Michigan open seat.
His list of outcome indicator states: AK, IA, ME, MI, NC, OH, and TX
Election Integrity. Unsurprisingly, D candidates and voters express more concern about the President’s potential attempts to skew results. Jacob also notes that the Constitutional role preserved for states greatly minimizes odds of successful aberrations. He mentioned secretaries of states of both parties “war-gaming” to protect integrity.
AI/Data Centers. Fears of technological unknowns generally and environmental consequences of data centers particularly make for nearly ubiquitous candidate distancing from the topics.
Jacob will lead C-SPAN’s primary election analysis tonight beginning at 7pm.
