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US-Iran Conflict, Congress Agenda, ECB Decision, G20 PMIs, Burnham Ceremony

Published on July 19, 2026

Kim Wallace

Washington policymakers are immaterial to the issues more likely to influence risk sentiment focused this week on macro, sector, and company fundamentals. The ECB and PBOC command the monetary policy feed as the Federal Reserve is in quiet mode through the coming ten days, while earnings help set the narrative. Geopolitics remains directionless wedged between the two hot wars as US-China AI competition risk simmers without boiling over into heads of state confrontation.

Weighted down by electoral politics, Congress continues to hunt and peck for fiscal and defense legislation ways forward, each body more alert to downside risks than market relevant upside policy. The House Rules Committee is scheduled to accommodate floor consideration of supplemental Pentagon spending, among other items, and what some see as insurance against and October 1 shutdown. Absent a clear July or early August bicameral endgame, odds favor final action in September. The Senate again will try to begin debate on the annual defense authorization process and soon will turn to a floor vote on Todd Blanche’s likely narrow confirmation as the next US Attorney General. Timing of a potential Senate floor crypto legislation vote remains tied to securing 60 votes, a threshold not yet reached.

OUTLOOK (all times Eastern)

Sunday

9:00p.m., China 1- and 5-yr loan prime rates announced.

Monday

Andy Burnham’s scheduled swearing in as UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade.

2:00p.m., House Rules Committee meets to prepare floor consideration of various fiscal matters.

Tuesday

Belgium National Day, markets closed.

The 59^th ASEAN foreign ministers’ four-day meeting begins.

Brookings Institution municipal finance two-day conference begins (HERE).

10:00a.m., Senate Appropriations Committee examines Administration FY26 supplemental funding request.

Wednesday

The European Commission provisional deadline to decide on Paramount’s proposed acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery.

9:30a.m., Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee examines the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, providing additional data center policy commentary.

10:00a.m., House Appropriations Committee members discuss government shutdown reform.

Thursday

8:15a.m., ECB monetary policy decisions followed thirty minutes later by President Lagarde’s presser.

Friday

President Trump set to attend the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

6:30a.m., Bank of Russia key rate decision.

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