Back AI Macro Nexus Research

The AI Midcycle Slowdown Is Ending: The Next Leg Runs Through Consumer Agents and Crypto

Published on July 12, 2026

Jordi Visser

In this week’s video, I explain why I think the adjustment to the AI midcycle slowdown is ending. The second-derivative deceleration is now consensus, positioning has been cleansed, and the bears are coming out of the woodwork, historically a constructive sign while token demand continues. Tech momentum realized volatility hit 87, retail’s 2x levered products gave back 62%, quant managers surrendered a third of their year, and 87% of S&P 500 semiconductors registered oversold. That’s a speed crash inside a structural bull market built on token demand while Samsung’s 10-day rate of change selloff on good news was the largest since COVID and Lehman.

The valuation setup is striking: Samsung trades near a 4 PE on 2026 estimates with operating profit potentially exceeding $217 billion, more than its cumulative profit over the past 40 years. Memory shortages are now projected beyond 2030 while capacity grows only 20–30% annually against doubling demand. This is exponential demand versus linear supplyhe , the core of the short-abundance, long-scarcity framework.

The next theme is consumer agents, a bigger token catalyst than coding agents, with Goldman estimating agents could drive token consumption up roughly 24x. And the crypto shift is now unavoidable: Scott Bessent’s speech and Mohamed El-Erian’s op-ed reframe digital assets, stablecoins, and tokenization as US financial statecraft. Traditional investors can no longer have no view.

Timestamps

(00:00–02:55) Setup: bubbles, parabolas, and speed crashes; the midcycle slowdown is ending; a reminder of why this is the AI Macro Nexus, AI is now the dominant macro force of the cycle.
(03:15–06:32) Sentiment and technical cleanse: tech momentum 60-day realized vol at 87; a structural bull market built entirely on token demand; still early despite two years of bubble calls.
(06:32–11:08) The memory speed crash: Samsung’s 19-fold profit surge, a 21% 10-day rate of change (largest since COVID and Lehman), 4 PE valuations, and why “short abundance, long scarcity” remains the framework.
(11:34–15:30) Positioning flush: quant long/short managers’ worst stretch since December 2023, retail 2x levered products down 62%, 87% of S&P semis oversold historically strong entry signals.
(15:30–20:58) Memory reality check: shortages now projected beyond 2030, Musk’s terafab, capacity growing 20–30% vs. demand doubling, why the fracking comparison fails against exponential digital demand.
(20:58–22:38) Concentrated basket update: 50-day retest, RSI reset, Nvidia holding the 200-day with a MACD buy signal at its lowest valuation in a decade.
(22:38–28:27) The token expenditure index, demystified: the coding-agent capability shock, enterprise FOMO, bill shock and Dylan Patel’s spend going from $100K to $11 million annualized in six months for a 90-person firm.
(28:27–34:40) Consumer agents, the next major theme: Meta’s CTO on why consumer AI has been slow (product layer, not model weakness), and Apple closing at all-time highs despite raising prices 20% on memory costs.
(34:40–40:05) The capacity myth: Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Oracle backlogs totaling nearly $2 trillion; SemiAnalysis capex forecast at $11.1 trillion versus Goldman’s $7.6 trillion.
(40:27–51:21) Crypto’s Bessent moment: digital assets, stablecoins, and tokenization reframed as US financial statecraft; the Andreessen 2014 parallel; the 40-name crypto index; Bitcoin absorbing Saylor’s sale and closing higher.
(51:36–53:54) The Fed: why July is the only month a hike makes sense, why one-and-done at 25bps is the risk case, and why no move likely means tailwinds for Bitcoin.

Watch here

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS

Analyst Certification

The analyst, 22V Research Group, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Analyst Certifications and Independence of Research.

Each of the 22V Research analysts whose names appear on the front page of this report hereby certify that all the views expressed in this Report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views of in this Report.

22V Research (the “Company”) is an independent research provider. The Company is not a member of the FINRA or the SIPC and is not a registered broker dealer or investment adviser. 22V Research has no other regulated or unregulated business activities which conflict with its provision of independent research.

22V Research, LLC is a professional services and independent publication organization. 22V Research, LLC is not a securities broker-dealer, not a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), not a registered investment advisor (RIA) and not a member of SIPC.

Securities transactions, when offered, are offered by 22V Securities, LLC through LPS Capital, LLC. Certain employees of 22V Securities, LLC are dually registered as securities representatives of LPS Capital, LLC or Analyst Hub Securities, LLC. 22V Securities, LPS Capital and Analyst Hub Securities are members FINRA, SIPC.

https://brokercheck.finra.org/

Current Ratings Definition.

SECTOR OUTPERFORM: An “outperform” rating anticipates the company will outperform the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

SECTOR PERFORM: A “market perform” rating anticipates the company will perform in line with the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

SECTOR UNDERPERFORM: An “underperform” rating anticipates the company will underperform the S&P Regional Banking Index (peer group).

Limitation Of Research And Information.

This Report has been prepared for distribution to only qualified institutional or professional clients of 22V Research Group. The contents of this Report represent the views, opinions, and analyses of its authors. The information contained herein does not constitute financial, legal, tax or any other advice. All third-party data presented herein were obtained from publicly available sources which are believed to be reliable; however, the Company makes no warranty, express or implied, concerning the accuracy or completeness of such information. In no event shall the Company be responsible or liable for the correctness of, or update to, any such material or for any damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this data. Nothing contained in this Report or any distribution by the Company should be construed as any offer to sell, or any solicitation of an offer to buy, any security or investment. Any research or other material received should not be construed as individualized investment advice. Investment decisions should be made as part of an overall portfolio strategy and you should consult with a professional financial advisor, legal and tax advisor prior to making any investment decision. 22V Research Group shall not be liable for any direct or indirect, incidental or consequential loss or damage (including loss of profits, revenue or goodwill) arising from any investment decisions based on information or research obtained from 22V Research Group.

Reproduction And Distribution Strictly Prohibited.

No user of this Report may reproduce, modify, copy, distribute, sell, resell, transmit, transfer, license, assign or publish the Report itself or any information contained therein. Notwithstanding the foregoing, clients with access to working models are permitted to alter or modify the information contained therein, provided that it is solely for such client’s own use. This Report is not intended to be available or distributed for any purpose that would be deemed unlawful or otherwise prohibited by any local, state, national or international laws or regulations or would otherwise subject the Company to registration or regulation of any kind within such jurisdiction.

Copyrights, Trademarks, Intellectual Property.

22V Research Group, and any logos or marks included in this Report are proprietary materials. The use of such terms and logos and marks without the express written consent of 22V Research Group is strictly prohibited. The copyright in the pages or in the screens of the Report, and in the information and material therein, is proprietary material owned by 22V Research Group unless otherwise indicated. The unauthorized use of any material on this Report may violate numerous statutes, regulations and laws, including, but not limited to, copyright, trademark, trade secret or patent laws.