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China Week Ahead: Trump-Xi Meeting, Politburo, Five-Year Plan Details

Published on October 24, 2025

Michael Hirson

Houze Song

The next week is a busy one for China’s policy calendar. President Trump and General Secretary Xi Jinping will meet in South Korea on October 30 in an effort to de-escalate tensions and lay the groundwork for Trump to visit China in Q1 2026. On the domestic policy front, Beijing will release more details on the next Five-Year Plan and hold a Politburo meeting to discuss economic support for the remainder of the year. Below we summarize the key events, what we expect, and the watchpoints.

RECENT COVERAGE

Special Report: Prospects for a Rare Earths Truce, and What Comes After [link]
22V Video: Policy Outlook for China, Europe and the United States [link]

China: Five-Year Plan will Double-Down on Manufacturing and High Tech [link]

KEY CALENDAR EVENTS

This weekend (10/24-26): Treasury Secretary Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia
- Why it Matters: Lays the groundwork for a Trump-Xi truce on rare earths and tech-related export controls later in the week.
- What We Expect: Tense but “constructive” discussions that allow Trump and Xi to de-escalate, but with key details still to be worked out in coming weeks. See our special report (link here) for more.
- Watchpoints: Beyond the rare earths dispute, it will also be important to see if Bessent and He signal progress in extending their separate truce on reciprocal tariffs, due to expire on November 10.

Monday or Tuesday (10/27-28): China releases more details on its Five-Year Plan
- Why it Matters: Sets the agenda for China’s industrial and macroeconomic policies in the 2026-2030 period.
- What We Expect: A continued focus on promoting advanced manufacturing and high-tech, and gradual efforts to boost consumption. See our initial takeaways from this week’s fourth plenum (link here).
- Watchpoints: Whether policymakers announce concrete measures to accelerate consumption growth.

Any Day (likely before 10/29): Quarterly Politburo Meeting on the Economy
- Why It Matters: Signals economic support policies for Q4.
- What We Expect: Only incremental stimulus, sufficient to stabilize growth at low levels in Q4.
- Watchpoints: Whether Beijing continues to express confidence in the outlook, or signals rising concern over slowing activity and the weak labor market.

Thursday (10/30): TRUMP AND XI MEET IN SOUTH KOREA
- Why it Matters: Critical to reaching a truce on rare earths that avoids re-escalation on November 1, and laying the groundwork for a Trump visit to China in Q1 2026.
- What We Expect: A truce in which both sides postpone recently announced export control measures and extend their earlier tariff truce (expires Nov. 10). The two leaders may make a nod towards other deliverables (e.g., finalizing a TikTok deal, resuming Chinese purchases of soybeans), but detailed negotiations would likely happen in advance of a Trump trip to China.
- Watchpoints: Whether the two sides announce loose plans for a Trump visit to China in Q1 2026.

Saturday (11/1): Threatened date of US escalatory measures
- Why it Matters: Trump has threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports by 100 percentage points, and to impose export controls on “critical software” to China.
- What We Expect: Trump and Xi will use their meeting to avoid this outcome.
- Watchpoints: Outcome of Bessent-He negotiations.

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