SUMMARY
The bottom line is that neither party has incentive to be identified as the cause of a government shutdown – of any duration, for any reason – seven weeks out from a very likely tight-margin Midterm vote to seat the 118th Congress in January. Republicans could benefit from a short-term shutdown if it was of the immaculate sort – no fingerprints. That seems unlikely, so we stick with our ‘shutdown averted’ call despite the usual noise from elements of both parties threatening fiscalamity should a controversial item be included or excluded from the continuing resolution (CR).
FY23 and Energy Permit Streamlining
Fortunately, November 8 is a focusing event for enough Democrats and the GOP to fund the government into December 16 when tangible fiscal risks replace the headline variety likely to dominate this week. The underlying CR won’t be ‘clean’, but additional provisions in the Senate draft will be limited to community development block grants ($2 billion), heating assistance ($1 billion), and additional military and humanitarian funding for Ukraine ($12 billion). Senator Manchin’s Energy Independence and Security Act of 2022 is in the draft.
Manchin’s provision is a fulsome attempt to streamline permitting for all energy projects, including pipelines carrying fossil fuels, and fields and water area sites for new power transmission. On the last point, the American Clean Power Association is a whole-hearted supporter of permitting reform. Revisiting procedures and processes in place for decades makes sense for most organizations, and this legislation could result in good government improvements. It also concentrates decision power, pushes the Judiciary into tighter up-front refereeing timelines, and gives private companies with vested interest a more direct role in agency deliberations. While commendable, in our view, we can also see why some non-profit entities and government officials with vested interests in the old system would object to some or the bulk of Manchin’s bill.
West Virginia’s senior senator remains short of the 60 Senate votes he needs. Republicans publicly committed to not making this process easy for their erstwhile compadre, Senator Manchin, hope to derail this provision from becoming law on this CR. One-third of House Democrats recently publicly united against it on this legislative vehicle as well. The question for Manchin is what he can offer either bloc for votes needed to get the deal done before midterm elections. Precious little seems the answer, leading us to stick with our call that Manchin’s provision will be enacted, but in a catchall package in late December.
