SUMMARY
Rulings on guns and abortion last week cement the Supreme Court’s status as a midterm elections topic. Confidence in the Court continues to decline overall, with Republicans giving it higher marks than Independents and Democrats. It’s still too early to know whether or how that affects turnout, or if the impact is disproportionate in some states/districts.
Congress is away the coming two weeks and President Biden begins the week in Europe. Nonetheless we expect the White House and both parties to be busy selling voters a version of what the Court means to their futures. We’d be surprised if the Biden administration didn’t keep minds focused on the Roe rollback by announcing programs targeting women’s health.
The G7 got a jump on the week and an ambitious schedule by announcing a global infrastructure initiative. Marketed as a counter to China’s more frenetic infrastructure program of the past, Ukraine’s rebuild needs are foremost on the agenda for the three-day gathering. Energy is another topic of intense discussion as G7 and other countries contemplate a price cap on Russian oil, along with known and possible inadvertent knock-on effects of such a move.
Monday
A European focus continues this week as Chair Powell participates in the ECB annual two-day Forum on Central Banking in Portugal (central bankers know where to gather!). The then-ECB head, Mario Draghi, ten years ago at this confab delivered a “whatever it takes” speech that changed the conversation of the EU’s recovery from the GFC. That speech will be difficult to beat but participants will want to create reassuring headlines, this time absent the boost from free money.
Tuesday
NATO begins a three-day summit in Madrid, noting the 40th anniversary of Spain’s entry into the defense alliance. Ukraine also celebrates Constitution Day, observing its sovereign independence beginning in 1996. Mary Daly keeps the Fedspeak going in an interview with LinkedIn’s chief economist. A half dozen Fed speaker events round out the week.
Wednesday
EU consumer and economic confidence survey results are set for release.
Thursday
Italy’s deadline for energy companies to complete 40% of a recently imposed 25% windfall profits tax.
Friday
Dr. Larry Summers joins Dennis Debusschere, 22V’s co-founder and chief strategist for a 45-minute Q&A format discussion. Please email your salesperson or [email protected] if you are interested in connection details.
